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Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 11, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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How many people are persuaded by watching a debate?

Popular streamer Destiny once remarked that in a public debate, only 20% are open to having their minds changed (though you can also seed doubt in your opposition's supporters), and he targets the audience with that figure in mind. Pew suggests that only 10% of people in the 2016 election decided their votes during/just after the presidential debates, but 25% said the debates were very important in helping decide who to vote for.

It seems to me that a lot of people have opinions on how large or decisive this group is without actually knowing how many people are in it.

I would expect most debates to be a draw. There's a problem with the debate format, where it's easy to present a plausible sounding factoid that's incorrect. It's more difficult for the opponent to explain why it's incorrect if they haven't heard it before.

Destiny is actually pretty bad for that. I've only seen him in one debate years ago, but he was very good at making confident assertions without any research behind them.

A big idea debate I recall was the Steve Bannon - David Frum Munk Debate on populism. Frum spent most of his time trying to bait Bannon into side arguments instead of engaging in real discussion.

I do think there's some value. They won't immediately change sides, but supporters of one side can be made to realize that their sides arguments have holes they need to look into.

Political candidates debates have another justification. Remember that votes are selecting a representative, not a policy. If a candidate is and idiot or a pushover then he won't be able to do his job.