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So, in Polish internet, there's currently some noise about mobilization. One user got summoned for the month-long military exercises, which supposedly ends with being forced to take an oath (which seems like a weird concept), and then being moved into 'active reserve'. Which means you can potentially get summoned for such exercises for 90 days per year.
A (translated) summary/context from /r/Polska:
Direct link to the results of that vote. Voted: 455, For: 450, Against: 0, Abstained: 5, Didn't vote: 5
@AM_Zukowska is a member of parliament, left-wing. Translation of some tweets:
I've also translated a text published by "Krytyka Polityczna", which is left-wing. Relevant context: in February there was a poll asking about support for mandatory conscription, here are the results, by gender. Women: 49% for, 47% against. Men: 39% for, 58% against.
Translation is in the separate comment (reply to this one), due to character count limit.
Interesting. Poland has been conducting a major military build up recently, buying a large number of Korean and American tanks, to go with their Leopards and upgraded T-72s. This quasi-training/mobilization would make sense to go with that. I don't understand what the point is, in strategic terms. They're in NATO, they've got good relations with the US. They've already got a large army by NATO standards. They can expect the rest of NATO to support them in a war.
What is the point of scrambling to buy hundreds of modern MBTs and creating a logistical nightmare? They're under a nuclear umbrella and their treaty allies have a military budget 10-20x larger than the only vaguely threatening force in the region? The only area Russia has parity is nuclear weapons, indeed they have superiority in that they have 2000 tactical nukes, much more than NATO. So what good is this large conventional force? I suppose it could help out the Ukrainians. But how does assisting Ukraine improve Polish security?
Imagine that the Russians had quickly won the war in Ukraine. Does it follow that they would invade Poland, who is in NATO and protected by nuclear powers? Poland also hasn't been fighting a low-level conflict with a Russian minority either, as in Ukraine and Georgia. There are Russian minorities in the Baltics and there's Transnistria, but there's no actual fighting there.
Now since Russia hasn't quickly won the war in Ukraine, surely it is even less likely that they would attack Poland. If there is a war between NATO and Russia, Russia would quickly start to lose. Then they'd use their massive advantage in tactical nukes to compensate, that's longstanding Russian doctrine. So what good are the tanks and the large conventional force Poland is making? Other than assisting with delusional US wars in the Middle East (Poland was amongst those who enthusiastically joined Iraq II), what can they do?
I suppose the Poles have been burnt by trusting their allies before. Maybe they think it's better to be safe than sorry. However, I think that the armies of Poland and Europe generally are just opportunistically expanding themselves now that they've got a decent-sounding excuse. Apart from tactical/strategic nukes and an embarrassing shortage of ammunition, they've already got more than they need.
Spend more than a few seconds considering what it means to have been burnt by allies before. Poland does not have the same eternal confidence in NATO that you do, and in terms of feeling existentially threatened as a Nation they fall closer to Israel/Jews than they do the average nation. Poles are a deeply skeptical and cynical people and I still don’t think any of them have the same theory about why the army is expanding now. Understand that these people’s relation to history is one of dreaming their past leaders armed themselves to the teeth in weapons and xenophobia while cleaning the toilets of the nations who at worst invaded them and best abandoned them.
Israel acquired nuclear weapons, instruments that actually do secure their defense. They are at least realistic in their paranoia.
If Poland is skeptical that their allies will defend them from Russia, why should they hope that Russia will refrain from nuking them? What good are tanks when one faces complete destruction?
Israel also, relatively, spends more on its conventional military than just-about any European nation. It isn't a good example of nukes trumping all.
Israel faces various unconventional threats in Hezbollah and Hamas. Poland does not. Israel also likes bombing various countries like Syria, Iraq and so on. For offensive purposes you need a strong military.
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