This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I think option 1 is the best of the four, but in the West, I think we will get option 2. The reason for this is that people crave status, which option 1 and 4 would not give them. People don't want to be equal, at least not those who are above average. But option 3 is not politically viable or defensible. Option 2 has plausible deniability. It allows successful people to maintain greater status and wealth over others while being able to convince themselves of the fairness of their social system.
I think we may live in a corporatist dystopia where every field is turned into an over-professionalized rent-seeking guild. Doctors and lawyers especially will come up with lots of good sounding reasons to maintain a high degree of human involvement and restricted membership in their fields, allowing them to capture most of the surplus value. There will be a pathetic safety net for anyone who can't get a Doctorate of Janitorial Science or who is expelled from the professional guilds that make up the entire job market because his mandatory AI assisstant overheard him spreading misinformation (which is already loophole for the regulation of speech).
This may also be combined with high levels of wealth taxation such that the main form of durable wealth will be the status one can achieve by politicking up the corporate ladder in this professional guilds which will be so regulated as to effectively be government institutions.
Options 1 and 4 also go against the belief system of the common man. People don't like either free markets or hyper-regimentation. They see a balance between laissez-faire capitalism and communism as desirable.
Some countries like the Gulf states or North Korea may choose a version of option 3. I think the Gulf states will at least deport their foreign workforce.
A big question is what will happen to the third world. Some countries will be too dysfunctional to profit from AI, while rich countries will have a strong motivation to shut their borders. If it is obvious that immigrants are not net contributors in a fully automated world, the only reason to let in immigrants will be for humanitarian reasons.
But option 2 will make it look plausible that immigrants could be net contributors even though they won't be.
Some countries might find some excuse to not let them in, while others will make themselves poorer by letting them in. Finally, will rich countries allow people to move between them? Option 1 and 2 would require a rational government to require immigrants to arrive with some capital, maybe provided by their home governments.
I predict that it will come down to politics. Special interest groups will lobby the government to let in those who are expected to support them while restricting groups that might join their professional bodies and dilute their rents. They might relegate the immigrants to some low paid new arrival class that doesn't get much from the government but lives better than they would in their dysfunctional country of origin. For this reason, there would be very little immigration from functional countries, unless they could convince their governments to pay them a sort of immigration dowry.
Considering that this is already the case in many countries without AI, it seems like this process is likely to continue no matter what happens with automation of the economy.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link