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If I had the reach and time, the next trial would be to have one group of people eat 1lb of potatoes a day (and otherwise eat whatever they feel like), a second group eat 2 lb of potatoes, the last group do the full potato from the first trial, and see if there is any effect from just increasing potatoes.
1lb of potatoes would be about 400 calories, or basically substituting a starchy breakfast for most people. If it caused weight loss, it would be notable and attributable to some quality in the potato. If weight loss only occurred when people do full potato, then it lends credence to the idea that it's the mundanity of eating the same thing that lost the weight.
But the big take away for me is that SMTM just can't be trusted to evaluate their data. Maybe I'm missing something, but they seem to think their results support potassium as a weight loss catalyst.
When it comes to nutrition, it's all so tiresome. I've never seen a subject where everyone thinks they are an expert. Perhaps it's because the experts are so consistently wrong.
So I'm going to defend SMTM. Give credit to the man in the arena and all that.
SMTM may not be right either, but they are exploring interesting ideas like the potato diet. Hell, maybe potassium does work, albeit with a low effect size. Next step would be to try it over a long-term period. People aren't going to lose 20 pounds and keep it off for 2 years because of study participation.
It is because controlling for the multitude of variables and confounders is close to impossible ,and no diets seem to work that well.
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The problem is that you and I both assessed that the effects SMTM saw from the Potassium study were more likely than not a placebo, but the SMTM people are treating it like a win. Their judgement on this study does not align with mine, and it calls into question their assessment of other papers they reviewed and will review going forward.
I still appreciate that they are investigating the contamination theory of obesity and are gathering data for everyone to look at. But now I trust their interpretation of the data less.
If you want unorthodox views that I think are further developed than SMTM, check out https://fireinabottle.net/ or watch this video series. But even there I have a caveat - Brad naturally wants to make money from what he's researching and therefore has an interest in selling supplements to people. When possible, he does link to other places to get the supplements, but some of his theories seem to involve supplements that only he sells in the US, which is a little suspicious.
The point being, I don't put all my cognitive eggs in one basket, but that doesn't mean I don't appreciate these unorthodox people looking into the rise in obesity. I appreciate them for what they are and don't trust anyone wholeheartedly.
Revisiting my posts from last night, I agree with your take. I guess I just am overly sensitive to criticism of SMTM because I am aware they are dealing with an environment where criticism tends to be extreme and often unproductive. Much of it in the variety of "just eat less, herp derp". But you are right.
I think there is something else going on here. There do seem to be an array of exclusion diets that work well including the potato diet and croissant diet.
Here's another one that has mysterious results:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BD4oExxQguTgpESdm/the-unfinished-mystery-of-the-shangri-la-diet
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