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Notes -
The Dickstretcher Theory of Online Credibility: A Turing test for the Social Media Age
One bullet point on my little Reddit-Ghislaine-Epstein conspiracy theory post that drew a lot of laughter was my story of buying an expensive vintage watch on Reddit, from a user I gave a lot of credibility because he posted in strange and obscure subreddits on the same account, including a subreddit for hobbyists in stretching one’s penis to restore a circumcised foreskin or to attempt to extend length. Obviously dickstretching does not coincide with high trustworthiness or reliability, nor does it particularly coincide with expertise in watches. But it’s simply so strange a thing that it passes the Turing test.
The big pile of comments on a random, obscure hobby subreddit is the text equivalent of reCaptcha tests that just require a click. The process is simple, it wouldn’t be hard for a scammer to comment on weird subreddits, or to program a bot to do it, but A) to my knowledge no one tries that, B) It would take a fair amount of effort and time for an account that would later get banned, and C) I do think there is something ineffable about the drunkard’s walk of a real human commenting on weird shit that real humans like. I’m thinking of how this fits into a broader theory of online credibility, and how to assign credibility.
I’ve talked before about James Clavell’s fake-Japanese three-hearts model. Humans are vast, we contain multitudes. We have different layers of opinions, those we share with all, those we share with some, and those we share with no one at all. These are as different identities as can exist.
Balaji in his interview on the Lex Fridman podcast talked about how different forms of identity interact online. Your real name account is often presenting a fake version of yourself, a version approved by HR and family, politically more mainstream views; other than professional extremists who profit from presenting extreme non-mainstream views, who I often suspect push their views farther than they are actually felt because that’s what brings in listeners and profits. I actively do not trust real name accounts, and avoid real name forums, for that reason: if you’re making money I don’t trust you, if you’re not making money I suspect you’d like to that you’re just lurking on that pawn hoping for a promotion. Your totally anonymous board, your Chans et al, have been noted before by @DaseIndustriesltd as producing a particular kind of identity, one where you only exist as a representation because there is nothing else to cling to, no persistent identity or username to place a reputation on, so one can only think in generalities. I’ve never been able to get into them for that reason, I just don’t think in generalities, call it narcissism but I don’t identify by anything that comes up, and don’t have much interest in being tagged one way or tagging others.
Pseudonymous accounts, reddit or our little reddit clone, are the sweet spot in my opinion: it would be a chore for anyone to link this to my professional life so I can let them swing a little free-er, but at this point I’m attached enough to the username that I’m unlikely to just toss bullshit out there*. Sure, on the internet nobody knows you’re a dog and one has to take everything with a grain of salt, but I can at least form long term opinions of users and usernames and form coherent views of them, and too outrageous of lies will torpedo credibility and leave you a voice in the wilderness. I’m sure some people have rolled their eyes at stories I’ll tell, but if I claimed I was benching 400 and fucking models after I finish my PhD work at Harvard one could just block me out because it would be obvious I was lying. I’m motivated to tell the truth by both my inner desire to share my real life and a requirement that I offer something realistic to get audience traction, the truth being the easiest lie to remember I stick with that when I’m dealing with complex shit on here.
Which brings us back to dickstretching. When I see an account where everything is in line, it feels fake. It could be a bot, it could be a person fronting, it could be a person who just genuinely has generic beliefs; but real is 1/3. When I see weird shit, it feels more authentic, everyone is into something strange or incongruous or shameful. Lord knows I am, and themotte has thrown it out at me when someone sees an opening. When I see somebody online who claims to be a strict tradcath with a hot tradwife and 8 tradkids who attends mass every day and is preparing for the war to come; I think it’s all a troll. When I see somebody online who claims that some ideology appeals to him, and also likes this or that anime (I don’t know which are obscure or common), and doesn’t like burritos, and is a Buffalo Bills fan, it feels real. When I see somebody who genuinely admits to things that aren’t flattering, it feels true.
Idk where this all ends up. As authenticity online becomes harder and harder to parse, because of the mix of social pressure, bots, monetization of the lowest levels of human discourse by the thirsty blood-funnel of capitalism, weirdness is becoming the only thing that works for me to know someone is real. Let your freak flags fly, and look for other ships flying theirs before you have a parlay. From online discussion to online dating, the only way to trust anyone is to know how they stretch their dick.
*Aside, this is why private account histories should be removed as a feature, if I tell two different versions of the same backstory I should be call-out-able.
This theory would work only if the account has a large number of comments/ is very active. Pseudonymous account activity is power-law distributed. I.e a small number of accounts comment a lot, most don't at all.
I know 3 "normies" from the meat-sapce who use reddit. Their reddit accounts are literally all generic posts in hobby subreddits such as /r/cars,r/programming,r/memes. Those accounts would fail your test.
And moreover, I use reddit for buying/selling things too. I have a very "clean" account for that where I rarely post anything ever at all, given I don't want people who will see me in real life to know about my dickstretching habit. I think similarly a large contingency of people will use a "clean" account devoid of any dickstretching for business reasons.
tldr; I think your model will produce mostly false negatives.
A preponderance of false negatives isn't a flaw if the harm of a false negative is negligible (at worst opportunity cost) while the harm of a false positive is high (thousands of dollars, who knows what else).
The two use cases I pointed to where I've noted its usefulness on reddit were r4r and buying a luxury watch. If I miss out on a Rolex because i didn't trust the seller, the harm is that I don't own a Rolex for whatever period it takes me to find a trustworthy seller, which might be no time at all if there are Rolex's available from sellers who pass. If I buy a Rolex and get scammed, I'm out two grand or more. If I miss out on an actual hot milf who wants to meet in my area because I don't trust the account's vibe, I've missed out on absolutely nothing as long as I have more applicants than available calendar dates, and on nothing but the time it takes to find a trustworthy account otherwise. If I get scammed by an online bot account, well as I type this I realize I don't actually know what happens then but I'm pretty sure it's not gonna be good for me.
So it might be limited to similar circumstances. It would not be a practical way to buy something I actually needed in short order. Or a practical way to assess the credibility of information I needed to look up regularly.
Contact your credit card issuer immediately and ask for a chargeback or try to claim a fraud complaint. Sometimes the card company might actually allow a chargeback if they have sufficient reason to believe it was a scam (and you didn't sign a contract or such).
If that fails, you will probably have take the L unless you want to hire a lawyer (or some goons).
I was thinking less in the charge on credit card range than in the "How would you feel about your mother/boss/priest seeing these conversations?" direction. Or maybe the "Show up and get beat up and robbed" direction. But I've never gotten anywhere near either, afaik, nor do I really know of stories of people who have. But it's always the worry right?
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