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I definitely don't have @self_made_human's endless energy for arguing here, but his takes tend to be quite grounded. He doesn't make wild predictions about what LLMs will do tomorrow, he talks about what he's actually doing with them today. I'm sure if we had more people from the Cult of Yud or AI 2027 or accelerationists here bloviating about fast takeoffs and imminent immortality, both he and I would be arguing against excessive AI hype.
But people who honestly understand the potential of LLMs should be full of hype. It's a brand-new, genuinely transformative technology! Would you have criticized Edison and Tesla at the 1893 World's Fair for being "full of hype" about the potential for electricity?
I really think laymen, who grew up with HAL, Skynet, and the Star Trek computer, don't have good intuition for what's easy and what's hard in AI, and just how fundamentally this has changed in the last 5 years. As xkcd put it a decade ago: "In CS, it can be hard to explain the difference between the easy and the virtually impossible." At the time, the path we saw to solving that "virtually impossible" task (recognizing birds) was to train a very expensive, very specialized neural net that would perform at maybe 85% success rate (to a human's 99%) and be useful for nothing else. Along came LLMs, and of course vision isn't even one of their strengths, but they can still execute this task quite well, along with any of a hundred similar vision tasks. And a million text tasks that were also considered even harder than recognizing birds - we at least had some experience training neural nets to recognize images, but there was no real forewarning for the emergent capability of writing coherent essays. If only we'd thought to attach power generators to AI skeptics' goalposts, we could have solved our energy needs as they zoomed into the distance.
When the world changes, is it "hype" to Notice?
Your argument only really makes sense insofar as one agrees that there is substance behind the hype. But not everyone does, and in particular I don't. So to me, the answer to your last question is "but the world hasn't changed". You seem to disagree, and I'm not going to try to change your mind - but hopefully you can at least see how that disagreement undermines the foundation of your argument.
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