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Notes -
2023 Predictions
Where percentages mean the expected share of predictions at that percentage that are correct by the end of the year. Essentially, I expect 4 of my 5 80% predictions to occur, one of my four 25% predictions, etc.
Asset Markets will:
50% at some point in 2023, the SP500 will be 12%+ below its December 31st, 2022 value.
25% at some point in 2023, the SP500 will be 20%+ below its December 31st, 2022 value.
The Federal Reserve will:
80% raise interest rates by 50+ basis points.
80% not cut interest rates before July 1st, 2023.
50% raise interest rates by 100+ basis points.
The Bank of Canada will:
80% raise interest rates by 50+ basis points.
50% raise interest rates by 100+ basis points.
Canada will:
50% have a “moderate” recession which begins in 2023 defined as either of: (1) a cumulative decline in GDP of 2% across any number of quarters, (2) the unemployment rises to 7% at any point.
80% see detached house prices decline by 15%+ as measured by the December over December CREA national benchmark.
25% Canada will have an election in 2023 and … the Liberals will win a minority government.
50% Canada will have an election in 2023 and … the CPC will increase seats and win the most votes.
25% Have a constitutional or jurisdictional crisis over provincial / federal issues, probably related to guns, but possibly related to the Alberta Pension Plan, health care funding, or equalization. This is hard to define, but I would take any kind of Meech-Lake style conference, or Supreme Court decision on constitutional questions, the creation of the Alberta Pension Plan, or refusal by local police to enforce federal gun bans as positive evidence.
At the risk of narcissism, I will:
50% Buy a house.
80% Save over half of our family's after-tax income.
25% Switch jobs.
Not going to estimate certainty, and I don't even have a specific prediction, just want to be on record saying: something's up with the trans front of the culture war, the vibes are shifting. Whereas I don't really see BLM / CRT / MeToo / other aspects of wokeness going anywhere (other than the volume being turned up or down), I have a strong feeling there's something unstable about the trans stuff. Will it lead to a collapse, and if so will it be this year? Don't know, just saying keep an eye on this space.
Oh, a house! At first I thought you were planning on buying a horse. Well, good luck either way!
My sense is that we're in a lull right now. A culture war recession. It's hard to even rank them. I would almost say MeToo is the highest right now but only because of the recent Roe decision, but that turned out to be more of a pop than a bang, didn't it? Maybe the affirmative action case decisions in June will stoke the BLM/CRT set.
Oh, but that's just the thing! One of the reasons I think the trans issue is unstable is other issues are subject to these peak-lull dynamics: after they failed to get Rittenhouse's scalp there wasn't much for either side to rally around and so everyone kind of went home. The trans issue simmers. Are you going to shrug and go home after you realize you've been psy-opped into cutting off your genitals?
The entire time I was aware of the culture war, with all the principles being thrown out the window, decent people cancelled, etc., it felt like the rug being constantly pulled from under my feet. With this it feels like they threw everything at us, and not only are we still standing, we have the strength and the motivation to keep advancing.
Now like I said, I don't know if anything comes out of it. It's all just Vibe Analysis.
The problem with regretful transitions is that they have almost no support network other than people in the same boat. The left doesn't want to hear it, and the right wants to hear it, but doesn't really want to associate too closely, and it's likely that if you were trans in the first place you don't much want to associate with the right either.
That's the other thing, yes there's not much in terms of a support network, but they seem to be building one themselves. Most of them aren't as hostile to the right as you'd expect, but you're sort of correct, and the distance from the right is an advantage. If they can't pigeon-hole you, they can't dismiss you so easily.
All the direct attacks against them that I saw only backfired, so progressives are stuck with "they're a tiny minority, ignore them", but that doesn't seem like a sustainable counter.
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