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Notes -
2023 Predictions
Where percentages mean the expected share of predictions at that percentage that are correct by the end of the year. Essentially, I expect 4 of my 5 80% predictions to occur, one of my four 25% predictions, etc.
Asset Markets will:
50% at some point in 2023, the SP500 will be 12%+ below its December 31st, 2022 value.
25% at some point in 2023, the SP500 will be 20%+ below its December 31st, 2022 value.
The Federal Reserve will:
80% raise interest rates by 50+ basis points.
80% not cut interest rates before July 1st, 2023.
50% raise interest rates by 100+ basis points.
The Bank of Canada will:
80% raise interest rates by 50+ basis points.
50% raise interest rates by 100+ basis points.
Canada will:
50% have a “moderate” recession which begins in 2023 defined as either of: (1) a cumulative decline in GDP of 2% across any number of quarters, (2) the unemployment rises to 7% at any point.
80% see detached house prices decline by 15%+ as measured by the December over December CREA national benchmark.
25% Canada will have an election in 2023 and … the Liberals will win a minority government.
50% Canada will have an election in 2023 and … the CPC will increase seats and win the most votes.
25% Have a constitutional or jurisdictional crisis over provincial / federal issues, probably related to guns, but possibly related to the Alberta Pension Plan, health care funding, or equalization. This is hard to define, but I would take any kind of Meech-Lake style conference, or Supreme Court decision on constitutional questions, the creation of the Alberta Pension Plan, or refusal by local police to enforce federal gun bans as positive evidence.
At the risk of narcissism, I will:
50% Buy a house.
80% Save over half of our family's after-tax income.
25% Switch jobs.
Not going to estimate certainty, and I don't even have a specific prediction, just want to be on record saying: something's up with the trans front of the culture war, the vibes are shifting. Whereas I don't really see BLM / CRT / MeToo / other aspects of wokeness going anywhere (other than the volume being turned up or down), I have a strong feeling there's something unstable about the trans stuff. Will it lead to a collapse, and if so will it be this year? Don't know, just saying keep an eye on this space.
Oh, a house! At first I thought you were planning on buying a horse. Well, good luck either way!
Anecdotally in tech and among smart, """high status""" people, trans stuff is more accepted than ever. Especially among software devs, there are a lot of quite smart and productive trans people, who mostly have the usual harsh distaste of visible transphobia, while at the same time being much more ""reasonable"" than cherrypicked internet examples.
And @ your second paragraph, see my above comment.
Is it accepted when it comes to sports, prisons, spas, and other sex-separated spaces? Is it accepted when someone can use self-ID to claim a woman-only scholarship, or a spot in boardroom that was supposed to go to a woman?
Call these examples cherry-picked all you want, peogressivism has circled the wagons around them, and is not backing down. "It's cherry-picked" doesn't go down well with "you must agree with me, or you're a bigot".
This is my point about the conservative approach - even if you win "trans women in sports", that's a very minor facet people have managed to funnel a vague distaste for trans stuff into.
If a more competent transwomen, by virtue of being mostly male, takes a slot at google that was "meant for" a woman, so much the better for them and google!
This isn't really a principled argument though. It's just a vague signal that "the people, the real americans" agree with you. What happens when, as with gays, and then gay marriage, the pill starts going down in five years? What if it's already going down fine for most people, and the snapshots of discontent are random and fleeting?
If it's a very minor facet of society, why do they fight to the death about it? Why shoud I even defend the "conservative approach" when I'm not a conservative, and how is the distaste vague when I can tell you exactly what my problem with it is.
For Google, yes. Is it better for the feminists who spent the last ten years trying to set up that gravy train for themselves, only to get the seats swiped from under them?
I have no idea what you're talking about. How does pointing out that progressives refuse to debate these issues, and call you a bigot for wanting to talk about them say anything about "real Americans"?
I think you're high on your own supply here. If the pill is "trans acceptance" I never had an issue with it myself, you seem to be buying into the idea that only a conservative could find an issue with current progressive ideas.
For me the issue always has been all those things you dismiss as "minor facets", and attempts to impose entire philosophical worldviews on people (trans women are women!), and the bullying tactics used to impose them.
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