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Welcome to day 4 of the United States House of Representatives quest to choose a Speaker. Previous thread here. Not many developments over the course of the last few days. About 20 House Republicans have refused to vote for presumptive Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Allegedly there has been progress on a deal between McCarthy and some Freedom Caucus member holdouts but we've heard that one before. Politico also reporting that more moderate members of the House Republican Conference might be in revolt against McCarthy depending on the exact terms of the deal he makes with those Freedom Caucus members. Looking at the last vote yesterday, I'm wondering if the votes for Hern (R-OK) and the votes for Donalds (R-FL) (recorded as Other) represent distinct anti-McCarthy factions. If so my impression is the Freedom Caucus faction is composed of the Donalds voters and the Hern voters are more Never-McCarthy. If this is correct any deal McCarthy makes with the Freedom Caucus will be insufficient to get him to a majority, though maybe it will get him to a plurality. Democrats remain united behind Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). After we passed 11 votes yesterday we are officially among the Top 5 most ballots needed to choose a Speaker in American History. The last time it took more than 11 ballots to choose a Speaker was in 1859, when it took 44 ballots.
ETA:
At the end of the twelfth ballot the results stand at:
McCarthy - 214
Jeffries - 211
Jordan - 4
Hern - 3
Other - 0
Present - 0
With two members (Trone (D-MD) and Hunt (R-TX)) not voting. Seems like McCarthy has finally locked up the Freedom Caucus members that could be reasoned with, and has passed Jeffries. On the assumption that the remaining members can't be moved to vote for McCarthy by concessions he can offer I'm not sure where we go from here. McCarthy needs three more votes for a majority to secure the Speakership. Potentially we move to a plurality vote as they did in 1855 but you need a majority vote to change the rule to switch to a plurality vote and not clear the Dems + holdouts would go along with it.
ETA 2:
At the end of the thirteenth ballot the results stand at:
McCarthy - 214
Jeffries - 212
Other - 6
Present - 0
McCarthy again short of the votes needed to become Speaker but gaining ground. McCarthy needs three of the holdout votes in order to become Speaker by my count. The deal McCarthy made with the Freedom Caucus hasn't been publicly announced but I've read reports that it includes (1) key committee appointments for Freedom Caucus members, (2) conditions on any raise in the US debt ceiling, and (3) potentially requiring a balanced budget. I like the view that US gov spending has of the federal budget since you can see the breakdown by various topics and can dig in for more details. I honestly don't see how you get to a balanced budget in the absence of cuts to any of (1) the military, (2) social security, or (3) medicaid/medicare. It seems to me like cuts to any of these would be deeply unpopular but we'll see how the situation develops.
ETA 3:
On a party line vote the House has voted to adjourn until 10pm tonight. McCarthy apparently attempting to get the two missing Republicans (Buck (R-CO) and Hunt (R-TX)) to come back and vote. Assuming they do McCarthy will only need two of the holdout Republican votes to become Speaker, rather than three.
ETA 4:
At the end of the fourteenth ballot the results stand at:
McCarthy - 216
Jeffries - 212
Other - 4
Present - 3
Gaetz and Boebert flip to voting Present. Kevin McCarthy yet fails to secure the Speakership of the House of Representatives, but we're getting closer.
ETA 5:
Republicans appear to change their mind mid motion to adjourn and the motion to adjourn fails 155-279.
ETA 6:
At the end of the fifteenth ballot the results stand at:
McCarthy - 216
Jeffries - 212
Other - 0
Present - 6
And Kevin McCarthy is elected Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 188th Congress on the fifteenth ballot.
So in 1855 they moved to a plurality vote out of desperation:
But it didn’t save them from 8 weeks of argument in 1859. Both cases were largely due to slavery contentions and the formation of two separate Opposition Parties plus the Republican Party. Of course, war would break out only a couple years later.
Not a good time to be an American.
Edit: it was not a good time. Now is alright, I guess.
I can't imagine the majority (Republicans) here adopting "plurality" as acceptable, since that would seeming elect Jeffries (a Democrat). If the plurality candidate were theirs, maybe.
IMO this seems most likely to end in forcing the Freedom Caucus in line with a slight chance of ejecting them and forming a moderate coalition (more interesting to me, but unsightly to partisans of all stripes).
Unless the Trump team was expected to fall in line rather than hand the chamber to Jeffries. I guess the point is kind of moot as long as McCarthy stays above the plurality line?
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