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A pure hypothetical thought experiment: imagine it occurs that the Pfizer mRNA vaccination + all booster follow-ups (4+ shots) regimen is disastrous to health, and has a high 10-year mortality rate. In other words, those who strictly adhered to the recommended CDC/Pfizer vaccination schedule have a 25% of dying by the decade’s end, or some such risk. What would be the public’s response and what would be the just punishment for those involved?
I think in such a hypothetical, the whole political climate of 21st century neo-neoliberalism will be fundamentally altered. There would be a huge rightward shift on distrust to authorities, especially but not limited to scientists and public health authorities. I don’t think the public would be satisfied with Fauci and other heads being tried, and will demand sentences for the thousands of individuals involved in the decision similar to what we would see in the Nuremberg trials. This would also fundamentally change the political climate, as the “vax-maxxed” lean left.
What if the reverse is true, and covid has so-far unknown long-term effects, but boosters greatly diminish them, so that the unvaxxed are 25% more likely to do? Purely hypothetically, of course. What would the public's response be, and what would be the just punishment for people who said vaccines didn't work and COVID is a nothingburger?
I find this hypothetical less interesting only because it is approximately the mainstream consensus amplified. If you asked the median Democrat voter the risk of a 30 year old dying from coronavirus per infection, I think they would put it at 1% per infection, and with infections every six months that’s about 20% mortality in a decade. I wonder if this polling has been done. (If the polling has been done this would be the best place to find it, I love when users pop in with the most obscure statistic.) Though I suppose that can be a case of statistical illiteracy.
I would definitely expect a blacklash against pundits though, perhaps even with a (theatrical) federal charge.
Eh, even if it's less interesting it's valuable to spend some time on it simply because imagining hypotheticals where you and your tribe are vindicated and the enemy is humiliated and in shambles is bias-feeding epistemic poison. Already downthread there are some posters clearly treating the hypothetical as more than it was stated to be, imagining a "vaccine-skepticals have the better model of reality across the board" world rather than a "...happened to be right on this one thing" one. When you do this one-sidedly, you risk being like my mother, 90% of whose mindspace is occupied by "imagine if you tripped at the airport, broke your leg and got gangrene. You must get the most expensive travel insurance NOW!" thinking, or even writing the Left Behind series, which is a bailey of catechism being claimed from a flimsy motte of speculative fiction.
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