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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   1642 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 17, 2025

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With all of the enthusiam of Ben Affleck, I figure that I should put some of my investment portfolio into Bitcoin. I expect that it'll move independently of or in opposition to the dollar. What is the boring approach do that, adjusting a boring set of current allocations across the usual boring large investment companies?

I actually somewhat like bitcoin in the long term as a store of value. It is the first mover in terms of creating artificial scarcity, and has surprisingly few weaknesses in terms of preserving that scarcity. Contrast that to something like gold where changes in mining output or industrial demand can impose external price pressures outside of the supply/demand for a safe haven.

That being said, I think the rest of crypto is arguably the largest bubble in human history. I don't see any real value provided by the chains that try to act as both a platform and as a currency. And i expect that at some point those will all come crashing down. And when this happens, I expect that bitcoin will take a major hit. I doubt it will be a lethal blow, but I could easily see a >50% loss happening. That's a lot of risk if you are trying to preserve value.

Yes, btc and "crypto" are pretty different things. Btc is legit. 99,99% of crypto is worthless scammy trash.

And i expect that at some point those will all come crashing down. And when this happens, I expect that bitcoin will take a major hit. I doubt it will be a lethal blow, but I could easily see a >50% loss happening. That's a lot of risk if you are trying to preserve value.

People don't so much go via btc into crypto anymore like they were forced to do in 2017. If lots of shitcoins disappear, btc could easily survive and maybe even thrive more, with a larger proportion of the money finding its way to btc instead.

You seem to be confusing volatility with risk btw. There's no danger in a 50% downturn as long as it doesn't last for more than a few years. Obviously, if you're old/close to retirement, don't go heavy in risk assets. But that goes for the stock market too.

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