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Partially, but there is also a honeymoon phase and a phenomenon where people feel more productive but have mostly just shifted what they do, not increased their actual productivity.
Perhaps this is something that will pass with increased experience with the tools but it has not been my experience with the people i manage nor for my friends in similar managerial roles. It could of course be a combination of the above as well. Maybe the models just need to get a bit better and people need experience with those models. Who knows?
To me it seems highly specific where AI actually is a meaningful productivity booster for programming. It should be clear though that for these things it is very valuable.
I would be more worried for areas where things don't actually have to be "correct" (for quality or legal reasons), like visual art generation. Even there I imagine things will mostly affect the things liable to be (or already has been) outsourced.
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