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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   25383 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025

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I can buy the argument that the specific shape of a district matters less over time as people re-assort themselves. The corollary to this is that what does matter is the cycle-to-cycle changes in the districts. But on this basis, Texas' current actions are more likely to be a unilateral defection versus a tit-for-tat against previous democratic actions.

Also, if the district maps can be drawn at the whims of the legislature then the incumbent party can in general continuously redraw the map to maintain their advantage. This hurts your argument that everything will equalize eventually. The only way to prevent that is a norm that says "redistricting with the purposes of consolidating partisan advantage is bad". But your argument is the opposite of this.

My argument is effectively that trying to secure power in a democracy through anything other than pleasing the majority of constituents is eventually opposed to its own goal. If you can get away with pleasing your constituents less by virtue of a gerrymander, then they will come to distrust you. If they distrust you, your voterbase will erode out from under the gerrymander, and when the dam bursts you will be in real trouble. The one-party democratic systems, like in Singapore and Japan, are obsessed with pleasing the majority of constituents and use the opposition parties as ways to find areas where they are falling behind public opinion. That’s the heart of it.

One party states also hand out gibs constantly and force influential stakeholders into using their platforms to support the ruling party.

Hmm… I’m not sure how true either of those is of the examples I gave. Japan’s main “gibs” are highly focused domestic policies around food and agriculture, and I think they’re better categorized as strategic subsidies. Singapore mostly gives to its minorities, but the ruling party depends on the (non-gibs-receiving) Chinese majority for most of its support. I do know that Singapore actively represses other parties, but Japan does not, and the main party actually lost an election recently (and are now trying desperately to reform internally to weed out corruption).

Is it true of, say, Russia? Yeah, because Putin doesn’t depend on votes. But I’m not sure it’s true of countries with permanent or near-permanent elected parties. If there’s information you have to the contrary I’m all ears.

Hungary and Mexico both do this. I'm pretty sure South Africa does as well.

Mexico is AFAIK basically a narcostate. Opposition “disappears” and then reappears in several different garbage bags.

Hungary - not familiar on the details, what gibs do they give to whom?

SA is a bit of a special case. To be a majoritarian gibs-based political party, on practical terms you need an exceptionally productive minority to tax for the sake of the voterbase. This doesn’t happen in most places. SA, with a wealthy white minority, is able to do it. I’d call it an exception that proves the rule.

Mexico is a failed corrupt one party mafia state, but it does have free and fair elections and still has to pass out handouts and incorporate stakeholders- both the literal cartels but also labor unions, religious interests, big business, etc- to keep winning those elections.

Hungary... it's probably easier to list the bribery the government/ruling party doesn't engage in. From bribing impoverished villagers with literal sacks of potatoes to controlling the issuance of economic opportunities like cigarette sale licenses to benefit its supporters to using government loans/grants to ensure favorable media coverage.

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