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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   26854 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025

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Can a Bannon-Groyper Alliance Derail Vance?

This was a fun article looking forward to 2028. Here are the main points:

  • JD Vance is the overwhelming favorite to win the R nomination in 2028. He has a >50% chance as of now, while the next nearest candidates are <10%.
  • However, the Groyper faction, i.e. people who associate with Nick Fuentes, is not happy with him.
  • Nick Fuentes is probably the second most important person to watch on the Republican side after Trump himself. He has a lot of "energy", and has the benefit of being extremely online. People keep making the mistake that the "real world" is more important than a small fringe of online crazies, and they keep getting proven wrong over and over and over (e.g. with woke, the alt right, gender identity on Tumblr). The arc of MAGA is long, but it bends towards Based.
  • The best case for Vance is one where he becomes the heir-apparent to the Trump cult through an explicit endorsement from Trump himself. If he plays his cards right in that case, then the 2028 R nomination could look like a coronation with Vance simply refusing to debate any challengers and sailing to victory without really having to make his case beyond generic Trumpy pablum.
  • The worst case for Vance goes something like this: he doesn't get Trump's endorsement, perhaps from his rivals spreading conspiracies that any faults of the Trump admin were from Vance being insufficiently loyal to Trump. If Trump is flattered by these ideas he could stay out of the fray, which means Vance would have to do a real campaign. Then, he could find himself under a pincer attack by Groypers slamming the fact he has an Indian wife and brown children, while Bannon attacks him in a conventional way for something like insufficient loyalty to Dear Leader. In this case, Vance could find himself in a similar spot to Jeb Bush -- a frontrunner with little "energy" who's mercilessly savaged from all sides until he has a few disappointing results and drops out.
  • Expect the Republican consensus on Israel to crack at least a little bit over the coming decades, again thanks to the Groypers.

I’m currently doubtful that Vance will be the GOP nominee in 2028, but that has nothing to due with the Groypers having any actual pull in the GOP (I’m sure Fuentes would certainly like to believe that they do), and everything to do with my growing certainty that Trump himself will run again in 2028, damn the legality of it- and that the MAGA base will line up to support him, regardless of what the Constitution says.

IDK what exactly his approach will be, but he has a lot of options- get some toady in Congress like Andy Ogles to promulgate some law that allows him to run again, bully the Supreme Court into finding some excuse to overturn the 22nd Amendment, claim the 2028 elections were rigged and that he’s obligated to stay in power as some kind of ‘caretaker’ figure, claim that since he was denied his rightful 2020 term by Crooked Joe Biden, he deserves to serve a third term…

Unless the 2026 midterms deliver a Congress actually capable of impeaching and removing him, I’m calling >90% odds that Trump doesn’t intend to leave the Presidency except in a coffin.

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