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Notes -
Yet.
I’m pessimistic; there’s still 3+ years to go, and I personally expect it to last much longer than that.
Alright, lay your cards on the table. How? Do you actually expect an 83-years-old Donald Trump to perform a coup and cancel the elections and declare himself dictator for life?
Alright, since you seem to be asking in earnest, I’ll attempt to give you my earnest expectations (assuming this damn phone doesn’t eat my reply halfway through and I promptly give up trying to reply out of frustration):
Bottom line is, I am 99.99%+ sure that Trump will not leave the office of the Presidency except in either a coffin or a body bag unless he is absolutely, 110% certain that, for the rest of however many years he still has left to live, there will never be a leftist administration in power capable of prosecuting him for his countless misdeeds committed during (and almost certainly after) his time in office.
That would require either (a) Trump himself to stay in office until he drops dead, or (b) he feels that he can safely hand off the Presidency to a hand-picked successor who has both the personal loyalty AND unbreakable political backing to continue protecting Trump from ALL possible criminal investigations, whether state or federal, for the next 4-20 years, no matter how the political winds may blow in the future.
Even if we assume such a capable successor exists, I’d still estimate at least 55/45 odds in favor of (a) rather than (b), on the grounds that Trump is a vain, entitled person uninclined to give up power unless he absolutely has to… and also that he has specifically floated the idea of serving at least a third term (if not more) multiple times- and that, more generally, Trump seems to view the Constitution as just a piece of parchment that exists as an inconvenient speedbump for his desires, 22nd Amendment included.
Given the fact that Trump can’t be certain such a successor will exist (and that, in the face of possible political blowback driven by the likely-disastrous long-term outcomes of his boneheaded policies, such a successor would be able to guarantee his immunity), I expect the odds of scenario (a) versus (b) to be higher than 55/45, especially if the midterms and the end period of his current term start to cause visible cracks in his base.
Thus, I’m expecting probably ~80% odds that Trump will attempt to stay in office by any means necessary, unless he has to cede power.
The most likely scenario I see playing out is that, after trying to ‘rig’ the midterms via redistricting, every conceivable procedural trick in the book, and (especially in the unlikely scenario that the midterms looks to be a blowout loss for the GOP), claiming massive election fraud and ordering recounts until a more acceptable outcome is reached, Trump will have one of his more shameless toadies in Congress (looking especially at Andy Ogles, who’s already happily floating this) propose some kind of legislation to allow Trump specifically to serve additional terms. If the GOP manages to retain any kind of majority, I expect that legislation to get put to a vote, and ultimately pass along party lines despite initial token unease from more ‘moderate’ Republicans. SCOTUS will either rule in favor of the legislation once it’s inevitably challenged, or more likely just refuse to hear any challenges to it while striking down attempts to void the legislation, or some other similar method to punt the decision. Trump will promptly run for a third term, and stands a good chance to win due to a combination of polarization and using the federal government to try and secure his odds of victory.
If the above legislative gambit proves unsuccessful, I expect Trump to instead lean on the conservative SCOTUS majority to just find some excuse to suddenly decide that the 22nd Amendment has actually been unconstitutional all along- at which point, he’ll run again, and refer back to my previous remarks about his odds of winning.
If that doesn’t work, I expect him to instead claim that since the 2020 election was “stolen” from him, that he deserves a third term as compensation.
If that doesn’t work, I expect him to either run again, damn what the 22nd says, using some flimsy, nonsensical legal argument. This includes hairbrained schemes like having Vance run for President with Trump as VP, and then making him immediately cede the office.
If Trump tries the above strategies and none of them work and he can’t run again (or if he is able to run again but loses), I am completely, 100% certain he will then immediately call fraud, and then most likely (80%+ odds) that he’ll do everything possible to avoid having to cede power unless he’s compelled to do…
…And yes, if all other alternatives fail, include him doing (another, less half-assed this time) coup, and either unofficially or officially declaring himself President for the rest of his life, if he thinks he can get away with it.
Cards laid, I suppose.
I'm curious what you'd be willing to bet on the condition that such a bill never makes it to the House and Senate floor for a final vote, conditional on Trump surviving (and not being comatose, Biden-esque, yada) to January 2029? Because at 80% confidence... well, I won't call it free money, but I'd be willing to bet at greater odds the opposite direction.
Assuming Trump’s still alive and functional enough to exert the at least the same level of pressure on GOP Congress-critters that he can currently… I’d be willing to wager $100 (probably the limit on how much I’m willing to drop on this kind of bet) that either some kind of bill along those lines gets proposed, passes committee, and goes to a floor vote in at least one chamber… Or that SCOTUS effectively overturns the 22nd Amendment first, and makes it a moot point (I’m skeptical that’d be the first line of attack, but IDK).
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[Granted, I’m predicating the above scenario on the assumption that the GOP will probably have a roughly similar narrow majority in Congress, so on the {IMO unlikely} chance they get utterly shellacked in the midterms, I guess that could affect the odds… But IDK in which direction, a rump GOP Congress might decide Trump’s past his expiration date and try to turn on him… Or they could double-down on supporting him and support the bill knowing it won’t pass so they can claim “they tried”. Hard to say.]
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I wish I had your optimism.
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