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Notes -
Ezra Klein in the pages of the NYT on why the Democrats need to Shutdown the government.
TLDR: Trump is an authoritarian.
Back in March, Democrats justified keeping the government open by saying that the courts were restraining Trump, that a shutdown would only accelerate his executive power, and that markets were already punishing his recklessness re tarrifs. But now with Trump firing dissenters, using federal agencies against political enemies, and enriching himself and his allies through foreign investments and unchecked power, Klein says that none of those arguments hold anymore. The Supreme Court is now backing Trump on key issues, DOGE’s chaotic dismantling of the bureaucracy has slowed because Trump loyalists are running it, and the markets have largely adapted to the new normal.
Maybe the markets have normalized, but we shouldn't according to Klein. Democrats are politically and morally failing by continuing to fund a government that has become an instrument of authoritarianism. He outlines how Democrats could frame a compelling message around corruption and abuse of power, citing Senator Jon Ossoff’s July speech as an example of effective messaging that ties everyday struggles (like high medical costs and housing insecurity) to elite corruption. Specific examples the firing of agency heads like those at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Defense Intelligence Agency for political reasons, targeted investigations into critics such as Senator Adam Schiff and Attorney General Tish James, the FBI’s raid on Bolton’s home, masked ICE agents now conducting raids without identification or warrants, and National Guard troops being deployed to cities LA and DC.
Klein is making a cope argument. It may be cope because the Democratic decision is driven by internal politics and he's trying to justify it, but the conclusion does not follow from the premise.
If Trump is an authoritarian because he is using largely established executive powers to reshape (and reduce) the executive branch and remove Democratic-favored official from the executive branch, it becomes more, not less, important to pass a budget. This is because the spending laws are where Congress gives the legal stipulations for what Trump can, and cannot, do with money from Congress, and can/cannot do to the agencies receiving money from Congress. Most of what DOGE was able to do with regards to agencies like, say, USAID, was precisely because Congress had never passed a bill inserting language stipulating a size / appointment process / etc. Because there was no Congressionally-dictated form of the created-by-the-executive-not-by-law agencies, what was made by the executive could be unmade by the executive. In turn, when Congress has given stricter stipulations for things in its power to, this has been the legal basis by which the more enduring court orders have managed to be upheld by.
If / when Klein's shutdown argument comes to pass, Trump gains, more power over removing select officials and ending disfavored programs, not less, because the government shutdown is- by definition- a result of Congress not authorizing the government to spend as much money on people, places, and things not already covered in other legislation. Moreover, Congress has already legislated who has the legal authority to prioritize closures, dismissals, cancellations, and so on in case of a shutdown... and that person is the executive. DOGE showed its limits relatively early in how much authority it had over direct employee terminations (which is to say- basically none in legally-structured agencies), but the Executive has a lot more freedom in choosing which parts of the government to turn off first, and longest, during a shutdown.
Where this time is different- and where the Democrats are setting up for an own-goal as far as preserving the institutions they want preserved goes- is that Trump can basically use a government shutdown as a legal basis for broader scale agency suspensions of contracts / efforts / etc. in ways he couldn't/didn't during the supplementary period. DOGE showed its limits on direct manning by having basically no actual authority over other departments or legally-obligated programs. In a shutdown, the executive gets to formally categorize members of departments by their judged level of essentialness. Non-essential people go home, and don't get paychecks, and keep not getting paychecks until either the shutdown is over, or they quit and get another job.
The parts of the US government most resilient to the effects of a shutdown due to how the legislations are structured are also the parts the Republicans are most comfortable with. The parts of the US government most affected by a shutdown are the parts the Democrat party cares most about.
The main way the Democrats have to keep those programs around is to make their continuation a matter of law. Legally obligating the government to shut it down is the same vibes-based thinking that droves most of the list of the last paragraph of alleged abuses that are largely not.
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