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I mean it's quite clear at this point that keeping lefty cancel culture and transgenderism in the public eye is very good for republican electoral prospects. Republicans just need to make it look like they're responding to left wing overreach(like they do when it's celebrating murder) so they don't seem like they're pulling shit out of their ass.
I think focusing on transgenderism was good for their electoral prospects in 2024. But if republicans make it their main culture war wedge issue in 2028, I think it could wear out its welcome. It's a safe-edgy position that everyone on the right can sort of get behind - it unites evangelicals, fundamentalist Jews, wignats, groypers, IDW debate bros, and even some feminists. But most people haven't met a trans person in real life, I think there is a limit to the amount of vitriol that can be stirred up. The constant drumbeat of trans bad will just sound like bullying the longer it goes on, especially when it takes the form of the same old misandry that young white males have been dealing with their whole lives. If the right doesn't embrace white identity, I think there's a good chance they won't be able to unite behind anything after Trump is gone.
I predict that the constant drumbeat of "trans bad" will continue to work until parents feel secure that government force is not going to shut them out of medical decisions relating to their children.
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It’s certainly possible that anti-trans could become a difficult position to defend in the minds of the public; but the more likely scenario is a salacious hate crime- of the sort which the trans lobby, for all its claims, hasn’t been able to produce yet. Rhetoric does not tend to radicalize people in favor of already unpopular groups, rather the opposite.
It’s also possible that bringing up trans is bad for whatever party is perceived as putting it in the spotlight; that’s certainly a very reasonable interpretation of recent political trends. But at the moment, democrat’s own public statements are what keeps getting them in hot water over the trans issue- yes republicans amplify them but that’s normal politics.
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It's only a testament to how far we've come that liberals are describing it as "safe-edgy".
We don't need to rely on "trans bad" and bullying. We can go after the doctor Mengeles that pushed the practice on unsuspecting parents of vulnerable children, we can go after corrupt academics, we can go after healthcare providers that cynically used this fad to extract money. We can keep hammering this issue longer than you can imagine, outflanking you from the left as we're doing so.
The true depth of this scandal is yet to hit the mainatream, and if it does, you will be looking at the innocent days of the year of Our Lord 2025 with wistful nostalgia.
We can always just counter by pointing out how many of the same people opposing trans kids have also defended circumcision. Personally I think chopping off a baby's genitals with a meat cleaver is a little worse than letting them dress in opposite-sex clothes. An unwoke democratic party would be able to take the gloves off and make arguments like this without worrying about being called anti-semitic.
You won't finish the sentence without your own side shouting you down, and it will look like a pathetic attempt at deflection if you do. It's like trying to fend off the opiod addiction scandal by saying "but what about all the people abusing marijuana and alcohol!!!".
Think for 3 seconds why this argument has never left obscure internet fora.
Ah yes, transgender care is fameously done without it he applications of meatcleavers to genitals, and other body parts.
Anyway, I think circumcission is pretty bad, but it's medical consequences aren't even in the same galaxy as the stuff being performed on children in the namw of transgenderism.
...have to come into existence, before you can start dreaming about what it can do.
The vast majority of trans healthcare doesn't involve surgery of any kind. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure the side effects of circumcision don't include infertility.
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