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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2952 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 21, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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What is the frequency of ICE arrests and/or deportations being false positives? (The person is actually legally allowed to be here and ICE has no legitimate business with them but grabs them anyway). How would I ascertain or estimate this information from an unbiased source? People on the left keep complaining about this and I can't tell if they're being genuine or just Motte and Baileying their objection to illegals being arrested and deported. How do I tell if this is a real issue or not?

(I apologize for this being potentially culture war fodder, but figured it didn't belong in the main thread since I don't have actual discussion or commentary of my own to provide, and am more looking for links to external sources rather than you telling me your own potentially biased opinion.)

You're not likely to find any good numbers. The immigration debate is pretty famous for having the government withhold obvious stats and academic researchers not looking into topics that could have results the left is uncomfortable with.

The other problem is how recent this all is. What numbers are eventually available for 2025 likely won't be released until early 2027.

My sense is that actually being deported incorrectly is pretty rare. There is a lot of due process, it's just in the immigration courts instead judicial branch courts. They sort out visa status issues pretty quickly. Things get tied up for years because defendants bring up a lot of long shot defences on humanitarian grounds.

There's probably a decent number of cases where someone is taken in but released in less than 48 hours after their identity is verified.

There's also a "the dog that didn't bark" aspect. If reporters had found a bunch of people improperly held for weeks or deported then they'd be making noise about specific cases. I haven't heard of any.

Also immigration enforcement has been so lax for so long, ICE has tons of low hanging fruit to go after.

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