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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32178 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 23, 2023

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There are many reasons why the US may be an exception to this trend of empires rising and falling.

The US is much more dominant, head and shoulders above the rest relative to past empires. The closest competitor to the US is China, which does not really have imperialistic ambitions. What could conceivably replace the US? Nothing. Supposed degeneracy may mean loss of economic growth, but not being displaced or conquered.

which does not really have imperialistic ambitions

There was a time when the US didn't either. Some Americans must be rolling in their grave at the postwar empire subsidizing Europe for 80 years.

China does seem like a downgrade from the USSR in terms of imperialism. So this would require for China to create a bloc , which it has slightly hinted at and has been much less successful compared to the USSR. Ironically, China being a communist country probably works to the US advantage. Historically, conflicts have always arose from imperialism, the takeover of land for economic reason. The US acting as a 'world police' does not even meet this criteria.

China does seem like a downgrade from the USSR in terms of imperialism

Partly it's due to old conceptions of what China is and specific Russian geographic weaknesses driving incentives. But part of it is that the US bribed China into the global trade system precisely to weaken the USSR and communism. Why would it need to fight when it can get everything it needs to industrialize without that? Especially when surrounded by US allies... This also calmed other previously martial powers like Japan (who were also isolationist and showed no signs of wanting an empire...until they did)

However, the situation is changing: the US is being more hostile to China specifically and, arguably, the global trade system in general and China imports huge amounts of food and fuel from very far away in order to maintain its newfound wealth. It's no longer the Middle Ages; technologically advanced nations require way more inputs and thus economic interconnections to compete.

These are the pressures that create navies and imperial incentives. I don't think it'll be some mass annexation of another nation into a formal empire nowadays but more than one way to skin a cat.

For a small-scale example: arguably China claiming the South China Sea and building artificial islands is a prelude.

What could conceivably replace the US?

Barbarism?

Or more likely whatever successor entity(s) coalesce in the aftermath... which is pretty much how it went with Rome.

Imagine the collapse looks a lot less like the world stage completely upending, and more likely that the U.S. fractures into a handful of entities composed of various states who have similar interests and maybe they do some warring against each other or politely agree to leave each other's interests alone and dealing with the rest of the world on their own terms.

At which point the American continent is probably still secure from invasion and takeover by a hostile power, but can't project force around the globe.

The US is much more dominant, head and shoulders above the rest relative to past empires.

And this is why Afghanistan is now being ruled as a distant colony of the empire after successful subjugation of the native population.

It seems facially evident that the U.S. empire isn't going to be able to maintain an ongoing presence around the globe capable of suppressing every regional dispute through military superiority if only because of our disfavorable demographics.

I'm going to read a book on the topic and see if I find this version convincing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_the_Beginning

Or more likely whatever successor entity(s) coalesce in the aftermath... which is pretty much how it went with Rome.

But Rome was literally surrounded by hostile entitles, like the Goths. Rome's demise was hastened by competing groups. Rome was also fractured by the rise of Christianity, but the US does not have such a similar schism. The left-right divide is not like this.

Imagine the collapse looks a lot less like the world stage completely upending, and more likely that the U.S. fractures into a handful of entities composed of various states who have similar interests and maybe they do some warring against each other or politely agree to leave each other's interests alone and dealing with the rest of the world on their own terms.

I think a breakup is more plausible, but though still unlikely

Rome was also fractured by the rise of Christianity, but the US does not have such a similar schism. The left-right divide is not like this.

In that there is not literal inquisitions going on to root out ideological heretics, perhaps not.

Do you think that the mental firmware that most people in the population are running is substantially different from that which was in play during the decline of Rome?

I think a breakup is more plausible, but though still unlikely

And a breakup would almost certainly mean the collapse of the 'empire,' is my point.

It's the inverse of your point about Rome being surrounded by enemies. The U.S. can easily afford to defend it's own borders... but it remains exceedingly expensive for it to project power overseas far from it's population centers if the host country doesn't welcome them.

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