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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 23, 2023

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what really deters crime

Incapacitation shouldn't be overlooked. A small percentage of people is undeterrable and will commit a hugely disproportionate share of total crime if they are able to do so. They need to be identified and locked up as long as they remain undeterrable. Roughly, this cohort is largely male, aged 16-35, and disproportionately black. The main benefit of 3 strikes laws is that it is a mechanical fallback that achieves this objective in a way that is immune to special pleading and undue sympathy from judges. It's a hard thing to give a 19-year-old a 20+ year sentence when you're faced with the tear-stained face of the kid and his sobbing family all dressed in their Sunday best and clutching the kid's old teddy bear, surrounded by earnest ACLU types unloading the best emotional weapons that the entire field of social justice has developed, but there are many cases where it is absolutely vital to do so.

Every cop I've ever asked for their take has told me the following story- these kids don't make it to 18 without committing crimes that would be worthy of harsh punishment if we were willing to carry it out. Most of these crimes are relating to substances, firearms, or assault. That 19 year old armed robber has lots of juvenile charges that were dismissed because juveniles don't get prosecuted unless they do something horrible.

Most will proceed to blame this on broken homes and a lack of corporal punishment. But it seems like being willing to lock up juveniles is a necessary patch if we can't bring back 50's families.

Every cop I've ever asked for their take has told me the following story- these kids don't make it to 18 without committing crimes that would be worthy of harsh punishment if we were willing to carry it out.

When you live in the city adjacent a high crime neighborhood (like I used to) you constantly notice people doing things that would be an immediate arrest in the suburbs. Teens drinking and smoking marijuana around garbage can fires, for example. Contrast this with a suburb where 11 teens being a little loud inside of a house at 9:30 results in 4 squad cars pulling up and arresting everyone involved. Heck, I was once tackled and handcuffed at the age of 21 for "underage drinking" in my friend's backyard. The difference is stark. And the enforcement gap seemingly grows as crime gets worse. Armed robbery in that area of the city happens weekly, if not daily, and happened once in my hometown during my 4 years of high school. And it wasn't a small town, certainly 2-3x the population of this particular crime ridden neighborhood. Its like a 1000x incidence rate.

The thrust of these cops’ story is that after they’ve been arrested for a beating, or carrying a gun in a burglary, or whatever, they’re subsequently let go without charges by the people who actually make charging decisions. A lack of arrest for public marijuana use is probably a symptom of that, not a cause.