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Notes -
Has the shot already been fired?
There seems to be an uptick in worst case scenario chatter, people imagining scenarios spiraling out of control until political violence increases up to the level of civil war.
Ignore whether any of these are likely. Assume a world where the US does descend into some sort of organized violence, the low end somewhere along the lines of the Balkans and the high end a slug-out like the Civil War.
When historians (and just assume historians exist, even if they're AI) look back will they identify something that's already happened as one of the primary inciting incidents? I don't think we've had a Fort Sumter but is John Brown's body already marching?
Alternatively - and again only under the pure assumption that it happens, no implication meant as to the probability - if you think it hasn't happened yet, roughly how long until it does?
Nope.
If it happens—and please, consult the sign—it’ll be economic, not social. You’d need enough young men to fall below the threshold of employability. That includes our traditional safety valve, the infantry. When young men have nothing left to do but police the community, maybe we end up pivoting towards entrenched local monopolies on violence. But that also assumes the higher echelons don’t get any more effective.
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