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Notes -
Has the shot already been fired?
There seems to be an uptick in worst case scenario chatter, people imagining scenarios spiraling out of control until political violence increases up to the level of civil war.
Ignore whether any of these are likely. Assume a world where the US does descend into some sort of organized violence, the low end somewhere along the lines of the Balkans and the high end a slug-out like the Civil War.
When historians (and just assume historians exist, even if they're AI) look back will they identify something that's already happened as one of the primary inciting incidents? I don't think we've had a Fort Sumter but is John Brown's body already marching?
Alternatively - and again only under the pure assumption that it happens, no implication meant as to the probability - if you think it hasn't happened yet, roughly how long until it does?
Some out of the box candidates, seen from a high school textbook in the year 2525, if man is still alive, if woman can survive...:
-- The PATRIOT Act. "The First American Republic was slowly destroyed as the relationship between the population and the government became increasingly adversarial, with surveillance and control mechanisms raising tensions ultimately leading to the Third American Civil War, which ended at the Battle of Chicago with the announcement of the Greater North American Barony..."
-- NWA's Fuck Tha Police. "The song translated the alienation between ethnic black communities and the police into the mainstream of white youth culture, and despite numerous efforts the lack of sympathy between citizens and armed forces and security services lead to the development of increasing within-caste identification and endogamy, ultimately giving rise to the brief American Mamluk regime after their victory at the Battle of Chicago, the collapse of which resulted in the permanent rise of the American Caste System."
-- The Bailout. "The reality that both political parties sided with the large capital and ownership class against the peasantry lead to increasing acts of violence against corporate targets, with the Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, January 6th Movement, which culminated in the Luigi Cult Assassinations which precipitated the Second American Civil War and the events of the Chicago Commune..."
-- The Cubs victory in the 2016 World Series. "The breaking of the Billy Goat Curse ushered in a period of chaos which lasted until Wrigley Stadium burned down during the Battle of Chicago. As a result, while the Cubs are allowed to remain in Major League Baseball, their salary cap allocation is set at a quarter of the other teams in the league, in order to prevent a repeat of the prior astrological crises."
-- The Election of an Illegal Immigrant Dreamer District Attorney in a Purple State*. "White American Citizens refused to obey laws enforced by a prosecutor they did not consider to have a legitimate claim to live in the country let alone enforce its laws. Signs appeared outside police stations reading 'I'm not even supposed to BE HERE' and 'Does she even go here?' Tensions escalated as citizens began refusing to participate in the justice system: conservative whites because they refused to recognize the authority of the district attorney's office, while poor blacks took advantage of this to continue their long running rivalry with the police force. The combined force of white and black protests ultimately sparked the Battle of Chicago..."
*I'm not going to go into too much detail here, but I know at least a dozen DREAMers who are ADAs in large cities.
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