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It's not about driving the ability to make money, it's about value over replacement employee.
A bad barista can ruin a lot of customer's days, piss people off, probably cause thousands of dollars of damage before someone notices.
A bad CEO can destroy a hundred million dollars of value, maybe even a billion, before the board removes them.
At those stakes, justice is not even close to the point. It's rational to pay that much because the swing in value caused by that single person is immense. The difference between a good CEO and a bad CEO is easily $100M just by itself.
A lot more than that, if they are Steve Ballmer. The difference between Ballmer's and Nadella's Microsoft is exhibit A in the case for "Some of our most talented people should be non-founder executives at legacy companies."
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It would be rational if there was any evidence that paying that much gave you any meaningful increase in how good your CEO is. But I don't think there is.
The evidence is that the company still exists.
I can't stress this enough -- a bad CEO can destroy the entire thing as an ongoing concern. The companies with those CEOs literally don't exist any more.
Insert the picture of the military planes coming back with the bullet holes.
No, I'm not saying that a bad CEO can't destroy the company. I'm saying that we do not have reason to believe that paying so much gets you a good CEO. Notably, even a CEO who destroys the company tends to get paid a bonus for his trouble. That is the exact opposite of rational, and so we would expect to see such clauses get eliminated, but if I'm right (and CEO compensation is driven by good old boys helping each other out) it is completely expected.
The reason to believe that paying so much gets you a good CEO is that companies that want to continue existing care about costs, and so if large compensation packages for CEOs didn't attract good CEOs, market forces would pressure them to offer lower compensation. So the fact that we continue to see successful companies pay CEOs a ton is reason to believe.
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