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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   736 thread views

Transnational Thursday for October 30, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Thoughts on Venezuela? I hear the US is getting ready to do something beyond just blowing up some boats, though we may be waiting for the Gerald R Ford carrier group to arrive around November 12th-17th... it's literally 'another two weeks.'

My forecasters are split:

Forecasters now believe there’s a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week.

How can I answer a question like that? Are there plans for a strike on Venezuela? Who would say that? Supposing there were. Would I say that to you? “Yes, we have plans, we have very secret plans!” Who would say that? You know, what kind of a question is it?—Trump

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