Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?
This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.
Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I don't think this is an argument for Elon Musk. If anything, Elon Musk is the only person who is preventing this outcome - if not Musk, it would be correct to conclude that the race is definitely lost and it's just a matter of time before the structural collapse reveals itself in a way that is obvious to the public (and if we're very lucky, it would not have a body count attached). As it were with the case of USSR, by that time it would be way too late to do anything - and in fact, it may be already too late to do anything 30 years before that. Not that anybody is inclined to do anything. To start thinking about change, you need to either a strong wake up call - like losing the space race - or have a person that is completely crazy and just decides to do something which had been proven many times it can't be done, and then does it. But we don't know yet which of the ways the future would go. Maybe Musk would lose and we go the wake up call way. A lot of people in the US are certainly rooting for that way, because Musk hurt their feelings and there's nothing more Hitler than that. But I am also afraid that the wake up call may arrive when there's nobody left to be woken up (insert a pun about "woke" here, I'm too lazy to follow through).
Yeah, no that's crazy. Nothing about the mission architecture of going to th moon with Starship can be reasonably described as preventing this outcome. 10 years ago, when nearly everybody thought that Elon can do no wrong, I could at least understand the belief that he'll conjure something out of thin air to solve all the problems that are plain to see right from the drawing board, but nowadays, after seeing how Hyperloop, "Full Self-Driving", Cybercab, Robotaxi, and Optimus are turning out, I'd hope people would be a bit more skeptical of him.
I am not saying "Elon can do no wrong". I am saying "Elon is our only hope". That's quite different. I don't know if Elon can get us to the moon. Maybe yes, maybe not. I know NASA bullshiters can't. And won't be for a while. Yes, Elon has a lot of failures, you don't need to bother listing every one of them, I am fully aware. That doesn't change my point even a little bit - either Elon succeeds, however flawed and problematic his plan is, or nobody does. That's the only two realistic options. I can not influence the outcome in any way of form, but for people who can, I think fighting against Elon is just betting on US losing. Again, maybe it will benefit the US in the long run, but certainly not anytime soon.
What I said was that there was a time when people were acting like he could do no wrong, and at that time claims like "he's our only hope" would be somewhat understandable, they're not anymore. Not only is he not our only hope, right now he's the limiting factor. Any of the competing landers would have had a better chance of success, and the way things stand right now, they might still succeeding over Starship.
To be fair, it's it's not just Elon's fault, there were very odd things going on at NASA when the decision was made to go with him, but no, "Elon succeeds or nobody does" are not the only two options.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link