This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Edited for correctness, clarity, and tone...
With apologies to the motte for the tardiness on this, I've been recovering from an injury.
A reply to https://www.themotte.org/post/3359/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/381026?context=8#context
Russia.
"We will eat grass rather than become a Russian colony again" — Polish FM Sikorski (and every other sane person in Eastern Europe)
Not to worry, the Russophiles may have a counterproposal, "Your country and women will be raped anyways, wouldn't you rather spend your few remaining years in a nice camp in Siberia rather than the frontlines?" — @No_one, probablyBy now, wise people, who read the newspapers (Russian newspapers generally never lie), have noticed that the news out of Russia is bad. After years of relentless and very stupid propaganda, even 'Izvestia' is running articles such as "Nearly 7000 transport companies in Russia on verge of bankruptcy" and "The share of companies with overdue loans reached a record one in four." A bit of lying around the end, "there is no recession, but of course there are negative trends." (https://youtube.com/watch?v=xbTDbAosRVM)
'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' ditto "the total volume of mutual trade [with China] continues to decline. […] imports of Russian oil decreased by 21%." (https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vs2xNro016M)
That means something. Not at all clear what. Obsessive observers of the war believe Russia is likely to hold out until end of '26, early '27. However:
1- There's a financing issue.
Sure, the Chinese may be willing to keep buying Russian crude at obscene discounts of nearly $20 dollars per barrel (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Sanctions-Widen-Russias-Crude-Discount-to-20-a-Barrel.html) but will that be enough to keep financing the war?
Russia, as everyone knows, is mostly broke, with the exception of oil and gas revenue, which is only because Europe propped them up. Paying through the nose for overpriced recruits like e.g. convicted criminals and 50 year old grandpas (2 million rubles sign-on bonus, 5 million first year salary) which are going to be used as meat assaults for a gain of 2 meters of frontline doesn't seem like a winning strategy, especially when $500 fpv drones being able to destroy them.
Unlike Ukraine, which will be getting direct Russian cash (which will be replaced by zero-coupon AAA bonds for Russia to pay reparations out of after the war lol) https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/eu-finance-ministers-agree-using-frozen-russian-assets-most-effective-way-to-fund-ukraine, Russia will be resorting to raising money from its Chinese handlers (except because of the sanctions, China can't participate) in Yuan-denominated domestic bonds. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/11/12/russia-to-issue-first-yuan-denominated-domestic-bonds-on-december-8/ Russia-Ukraine watchers will be paying close attention to the interest rates on these.
2- Materially, it's bad.
We know the gist of the situation, Russia has too few IFVs, AFVs, tanks. After losing upwards of 60% of their gigantic pre-war stockpile (the remaining ones being rusted out hulls with their insides scrapped or sold by corrupt base managers), Russian forces are resorting to using donkeys and camels to resupply their frontlines. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-depletes-tank-reserves-due-to-wear-and-tear-in-ukraine/ar-AA1JRlKJ https://www.newsweek.com/russia-deploys-donkeys-camels-ukraine-amid-resupply-struggles-2037097
There is a shortage of everything in Russia, petrol (https://youtube.com/watch?v=CSK7hPhwQl0), bread, potatoes, milk, even vodka (https://youtube.com/watch?v=HncXBqcedCg), but also cars too (https://youtube.com/watch?v=xt6_axtjJMs). Why there is a shortage of cars seems… mysterious. China surely should be able to keep Russians knee deep in cheap trucks. What gives?
There is even a shortage of artillery shells, Russia famously resorting to using North Korean bottom shelf products with 50% failure rates. Not to worry, I'm sure their drones will be way better. https://www.newsweek.com/half-russia-north-korea-made-artillery-shells-do-not-work-vadym-skibitsky-1873612 https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/north-korea-runs-out-of-shells-for-putin-1763159907.html
Russia drops bombs using their many planes daily, but Ukrainians sometimes deliver up to 300 drones and
ballisticcruise missile strikes a day. Any refinery, power plant, supply dump even far away from the front can be hit. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/14/ukraine-war-kyiv-hit-russian-attack/ https://i.redd.it/zxpc8b6p9b1g1.jpeg3- The front.
In 2025, Russian forces have made significant territorial gains in Ukraine, capturing approximately 165 square miles in the four weeks leading up to November 11, 2025. At these rates, Russia should be able to take all of Ukraine in a few decades. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-11-2025
Overall, as you probably know, the situation on the front is bad. Russia is trading immense amounts of blood and treasure for small territorial gains, and patting themselves on the back for it.
Going by the aphorism 'If you're reading this, it's for you,' it looks like the Russian press is preparing the public for 2-3 more years of depression (https://youtube.com/watch?v=z3BVZ66KcrE), a closing act of its imperial ambitions that started with the little green men invasion of the Donbas. Russians may or may not be eager for peace, "61%, up from 54% in 2024 believe it is time to start peace negotiations rather than continue military operations in Ukraine," (https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/three-four-russians-expect-military-victory-over-ukraine) but unfortunately they have chosen a strong man as a leader (https://youtube.com/watch?v=rXwuLlZeIN0) that has tied his political fortunes to the result of this war, claiming such things as "Russia's border doesn't end anywhere" (https://youtube.com/watch?v=fWaXH7N__LU).
Nitpick-y point, but I don't think the Ukrainians actually have any ballistic missiles left at this point, or if they do it's just a handful. I think you're thinking of cruise missiles (which is what the headline of the linked article references).
I just don't see how this is helpful or productive.
I'd be much more interested in reading an argument against No_one's past positions - and honestly, although your assessment that the Russian press is prepping the people for hard years ahead is interesting, I'm interested in more from you on what you think this "bad-news-for-Russia" round up amounts to. There's been no shortage of bad news for Russia ever since their initial attempt to blitz Ukraine failed. If you think this collection of bad news will reverse the trajectory of the war, or how you think the war will play out from here, I would be interested in knowing why you personally think this.
To add an actual thesis to Mushroom’s unhinged screed, I would steelman it as:
Ukraine has a decent chance of continuing attritional warfare until Russia gives up.
Even if part or all of Ukraine falls, it performed a valuable service in keeping Russia from advancing further into Eastern Europe.
I don’t think either of those theses are inherently ridiculous (especially not the second one), but they both rely on Russia really being as banged up as Mushroom thinks they are. Which who knows. I know for a fact that previous popular estimates of vast Russian men and vehicle losses were quietly and sheepishly exposed as bullshit by all the actual intelligence agencies that were keeping track (CIA, SIS, Mossad). I am really looking forward to reading some assessments of the war 20 years from now when it’s not a live political issue.
I also suspect that China has a much stronger interest in keeping Russia whole and threatening Eastern Europe than they publicly let on. That threat is what’s keeping a lot of US attention and resources flowing to places other than the countries of the South China Sea.
I think the second point still is ridiculous, because there is neither the means (unless you really flog your brain into accepting the "the enemy simultaneously weak and strong" pattern that is every propagandist's dream goal) nor really the motive (unless the Baltics really decide to force it by blockading Kaliningrad or the like) for them to take on NATO. Ukraine really was, in many ways, sui generis: at the outset it was almost 50% culturally and politically Russian, it hosted the best European warm-water port Russia had (and if you accept that the Russians did not want to surrender it, that alone almost made the path to the current situation inevitable - the Maidan government wanted to tear up the lease so Crimea had to be taken, and the post-Maidan governments wanted to starve out Crimea so more territory had to be taken), and it's a single-authority transit country linking Russia to the easternmost loyal hydrocarbon customers it has in Europe (Hungary and Slovakia), which the pro-Atlanticist forces in Europe and Ukraine were very keen on using against them through out the 200Xes.
Well I was trying to steelman OP’s thesis so I had to accept at least some of his assertions. I meant it’s not unreasonable to assume that Russian forces have possibly taken enough damage to make it not feasible to mount an invasion of Poland even if they wanted to. I don’t agree but I don’t laugh in his face for making the argument. Personally I think this whole boondoggle has probably increased the capability of the Russian army and made them more likely to go for Poland or the Baltic states, like one of those self-fulfilling prophecies from a Greek tragedy.
Well, we shouldn't forget that Poland, too, has actually greatly increased the size and funding of its army since 2022. Besides, how likely is it really that there would be no NATO response in case of a Russian invasion of the Baltics/Poland? (even if it's not immediate, the rest of the EU certainly would get involved, and if it possibly goes badly for them, I don't see a world in which the US stands by idly)
It seems to me that you just need to believe a lot of fairly peculiar (and likely unacceptable to any in the pro-UA camp apart from people like Julian Roepcke who went off the deep end in contrarianism) things to imagine a Russian invasion of Poland or the Baltics being successful: either you really think that NATO is already lending Ukraine most of its power (and so Russia is really currently barely prevailing in a stalemate against the collective West) and so Poland and friends will be weaker when Russia comes for them because they were already stripped bare, or that NATO is not giving Ukraine that big a fraction of its power and so the current stalemate means that Russia and Ukraine alone are about evenly matched and each stronger than NATO.
(Mind you, technically I think the picture is more complicated than that because the non-entry of the West has currently kept Russia several steps below the top of the escalation ladder, e.g. by leaving NPPs and civilians alone. However, to use this in your argument, you would have to concede that Russia is not currently evilmaxxing, which is also taboo for pro-UA.)
I think it’s plausible for a few reasons:
Since the Maidan revolution, Russia has had every paranoid fear of NATO being out to get them validated by NATO. I think Russia genuinely views it as an existential struggles. Both the leadership and a good chunk of the people.
Poland just isn’t as well suited to turning into a four year grinding trench war. It’s geographically a lot smaller, it’s land army manpower is somewhere between 15 percent and 50 percent the size of the Ukrainian Army. Most of the modernization went into magic beans (F16s, M1 tanks) that are serviceable but apparently not that magical in modern warfare.
God only knows what the hell is going to be going on in Burgerland in six months, much less three years. They may or may not get involved.
Europe is in pretty good shape to drip-feed equipment to Ukraine. But if that turned into “immediately mobilize 115 divisions and rush them into Eastern Europe while hypersonic missiles are crashing into every railway station and airfield Between Paris and Warsaw” they would be up Shit Creek.
If Ukraine really does fall I suspect a lot of countries are going to rapidly revaluate their commitment to the cause.
5: Which ones specifically?
4: Russia hasn't even managed to wipe out Ukraine's aviation or train network yet, and most of Europe would be rather further away.
2: It's about half the size (of presumably full-sized Ukraine), plus Poland and the Baltics have Russia by the balls due to Kaliningrad (whatever happens later on, it probably gets turned into a parking lot or occupied/taken hostage in the opening weeks of a conflict)
1: I mean, if Ukraine falls, what further ways does NATO have to validate Russia's fears? There will be no immediate Russian objectives like controlling Ukraine that NATO can actively prevent, so the ball will be in their court. If they then actually start something (like the aforementioned moves on Kaliningrad), then sure, all bets are off, but so far I thought the lizardmen were trying to be a bit more subtle about the whole "look how dangerous and unhinged they are, if we punch them they punch back" schtick.
Russian victim complex is as bad as SJW. Why is everyone mean to me after I belittled and degraded them at every opportunity. I am such a victim boohoo. Maybe thats why progressives love Russia, they love a victim narrative especially if its against the USA.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link