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This is mostly misleading, misleadingly framed or outright propaganda. Why, say, should the key takeaway from https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/three-four-russians-expect-military-victory-over-ukraine be that 7% more Russians want peace talks than last year? "As in past surveys, three in four support the continued military action in Ukraine" seems just as relevant?
'Meat assaults' aren't a real thing in this war. It's just a reheated trope from WW2 and was scarcely a thing there (besides banzai charges), it's just a pejorative way of describing a frontal assault. In an era of ubuiquitous ISR and long range strikes, it's very difficult for either side to concentrate a large force for a major offensive so they end up launching various small probing attacks, using infiltration tactics.
All your link says is that the EU has 'agreed' that frozen Russian assets should be sent to Ukraine. But they can't actually figure out a way to do this for fear of legal/reputational risks. Nations will understandably have some difficulty trusting the EU with their money if the EU can just take it and give it away as they please. It's just talk until they do it.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/eu-finance-ministers-agree-using-frozen-russian-assets-most-effective-way-to-fund-ukraine
Your link saying North Korean shells have a failure rate of 50% comes directly from Ukrainian intelligence.
As does this link: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/north-korea-runs-out-of-shells-for-putin-1763159907.html
Ukrainian intelligence is not a reliable source on the war.
There's a huge disparity between these strikes. The Russians have far more missile striking power, much bigger warheads on Iskander or Kinzhals than Ukraine has with their measly drones. That's why electricity and water distribution in Kiev has been heavily degraded whereas there have been no similar blackouts and load-shedding in Moscow, only in border areas like Belgorod that are in range of Ukraine's smaller, shorter-range missile arsenal.
What's actually happening in this war is that the bigger, stronger power is inflicting proportionately more damage on the smaller, weaker power. The side with more bombs, more shells, more guns, more drones, more men and more missiles has the advantage. That's why Russia has the initiative and is attacking, why Ukraine and Ukraine's allies have been shifting from their stance of 'pre-2014 borders' to demanding a 'ceasefire at the frontlines'.
That's why Russia is paying soldiers lavishly, whereas Ukraine is grabbing men off the street and shoving them in vans. This war is fought with vast disparity. Russia loses warships. Ukraine has no warships left to lose. Russia pays for soldiers, Ukraine drafts. Russia produces drones en masse, Ukraine has to ration with 'gamified' currency and score-based requisition for the best units. Russian allies fight on the frontlines, Ukrainian allies provide ambiguous promises and military aid while remilitarizing themselves, fearing some aggression. If Russia is faring so poorly against Ukraine, why is the EU so alarmed?
It's no good to just shine a spotlight on every Russian shortcoming, real or imagined, the situation needs to be considered in aggregate. The story has been the same over the whole war. The bigger, stronger power has more cards, more options, more ability to absorb damage and recover from reverses.
Ignoring Ukrainian propaganda aims for a moment, I'd suspect this statement is basically accurate, except for the 50% figure maybe (it's probably lower). I imagine it's merely a standard procedure at the artillery arm. It makes practical sense that at least the first batches of the shipped North Korean shells are the oldest ones in stock, as these are the ones that need to be used up first when the necessity arises.
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The problem is that appropriating the interests on frozen assets is likely illegal and russians will eventually be able to win that money back in court. Since the EU isn't actually in custody of the frozen assets, its member states are, and mostly Belgium specifically is, what really happened is that the other EU member states effectively voted a "Make Belgium Pay" bill, to which Belgium is currently objecting.
I'm curious how this is going to end, in the EU we've been overdosing on luxury beliefs for a long time, is this the point we come back to reality?
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Because, in Russia, disparaging the SMO is punishable by being sent to the gulag, so every poll/interview is full of equivocations, "we fully 100% support great leader Putin and the SMO, we believe 100% in inevitable total victory over the khokhols, but perhaps the czar should consider thinking about, if it pleases him of course, making steps toward peace."
I will put down (up to) $5000 that money from frozen Russian assets will be used toward Ukraine by the end of 2026. Will you meet me?
There's plenty of Russian army telegram channels complaining about the shells. Is it 30% or 50%? I won't litigate this, so willing to concede this point.
Yes, there's a huge disparity in the strikes in that Russia has kind of run out of high value targets within easy reach in eastern Ukraine. Unless they're going to strike Ukraine's benefactors in the West, or get their missiles on Ukraine's arms factories in western Ukraine (which they don't seem to be doing much for some reason) then Ukraine's puny and sparse drone and cruise missiles will keep doing outsized damage to Russia.
I agree, my post was an overreaction to an infuriatingly bad and partisan post not worthy of The Motte. Sadly two wrongs don't make a right, I apologize for taking the bait and not raising the discourse level.
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