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Notes -
From @sarker's comment:
So, trans people are fifty times less likely to be murdered than a random American? That doesn't pass the smell test.
As @FtttG points out below, trans people are substantially more likely to report being the victim of a crime, though that comes with obvious caveats. But some basic sanity checks: trans people are also disproportionately non-white, particularly black and Hispanic. They are disproportionately poor and young. These are all groups that face high rates of crime victimization, and you'd expect that, even if trans identity itself doesn't affect victimization, they'd be more likely to be victims of crime. Beyond that, my bet is that trans people spend time with other trans people; trans people commit more crimes; and so even accounting for race and income, you'd still see elevated rates of victimization.
None of this means buying into the HRC's framing that there's a systemic trans genocide going on, except insofar as our public policy choices let criminals run rampant in those communities.
Then you must accept either a much higher number of trans homicide victims (surely HRC has squeezed all the blood from that stone) or much lower number of trans people in the country. Thing is, I went through the trouble of scrolling a little further down Google, and HRC itself estimates 1.6M trans people 13+ in the US. So we're looking at a homicide rate of 1.2 homicides per 100k (apologies, I fucked up the math in the original post, corrected) if we simply take the HRC's numbers at face value. About 1.6M is the lowest estimate I could find on the front page.
To match the genpop homicide victimization rate, you'd need there to be only about 260k trans people in the US. And this isn't even counting the "gender expansive".
HRC is being pulled in two different directions: one, to maximize an estimate of the number of reported trans people; two, to maximize the number of trans murders. The former is a much easier task than the latter, because the same amount of work can get you any estimated number you want. The latter is much harder, because (AFAIK) most places don't report the gender identity of victims; so instead, they have some intern trawl through news reports and flag the ones that explicitly list the gender identity of the victim.
So, although I think the HRC estimates of the number of trans people countrywide are significantly inflated, the bigger factor is that the HRC is not capturing most of the number of trans victims.
Correct, as I noted in my original post.
However, HRC's estimate of the number of trans people in the country is the lowest I could easily find.
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