This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Since it seems that the situation has settled into another quite period while the sides sort their shit out, any other other DISGUSTING GEAR FUCKERS want to make predictions about the Special Operation?
Last time, I did better than most but still got blown the fuck out 'cause of shocking aggression from Ukraine and surprising incompetence from Russia, but Russia is running out of easy room to be incompetent and Ukraine is reaching the limits of easy aggression.
That said: Newest aid packages to Ukraine add capabilities that they did not have before, eg, a tank with a computer in it that was designed after the end of the cold war that doesn't explode if you sneeze on it, and Russia just dismissed the dude that organized the super clean double retreat across the dnipro (which was shocking; I wasn't sure it would happen but if it happened I thought it would be some combination of snafu and bloodbath).
None of this might matter given the fact that Russians are settles/behind a river.
Even with all this, it seems like the war will not end for the foreseeable future baring Putin dying of cancer and maybe not even then.
95% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
GIVEN PUTIN DIES in the next 5 months: 80% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
85% the war is HOT into 2024
90% no major territorial changes in the next 1 months
70% no major territorial changes in the next 3 months
40% no major territorial changes in the next 11 months
99% no nuclear action taken by Russia over the next 11 months.
60% Ukraine gets ATACMS in the next 3 months.
From an American point of view, while I'm totally sucked into supporting Ukraine and hating Russia's invasion, it's pretty nice that Russia is bleeding itself on the other side of the world with all kinds of internal tension and dissent. I have Ukrainian friends, and while I'd love to see Russia expelled immediately and peace restored, that is only a temporary reprieve from Russia's imperial ambitions. So while a grinding stalemate is terrible for Ukraine, I don't mind seeing the greatest geopolitical blunder in my lifetime be extended indefinitely to Russia's detriment.
I had honestly hoped for greater ties and reconciliation with Russia in 2005ish era. I wonder if that was truly a possibility or just foolish.
I really can't imagine what could've been a better geopolitical victory for America short of Putin reading John Locke and deciding to go all out on pushing democracy and individual rights then retiring.
For the record, the RAND think tank recently released a report talking about how the Ukraine conflict, which they originally proposed in 2019 as an effort to "extend" Russia, is now having the opposite effect (i.e. extending the US). Rather than a US geopolitical victory, the US military is actually now talking about how they're going to have to pull back out of the Ukraine in order to avoid becoming overextended and hence unable to deal with China in other theatres.
[citation needed]
Which US military would be even pulling out of Ukraine?
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Aligning with Russia to counter Chinese expansion by pressuring Ukraine to abide by the Minsk II accords would have been a better "geopolitical victory." The current strategy will lead to short-term gains and long term weakening of the GAE generally, although the strategy does ensure deeper American control over its Euro feifs. GAE runs on the dollar economy and it extracts large control and rent from that system; the insanity of the economic sanctions and seizures GAE instituted have ensured dedollarization will accelerate.
What do you form your opinion of Putin and his politics on?
I personally don't trust Russia to ever act as a loyal ally, so I don't think aligning with Russia was a real possibility, short of something like my example of Putin randomly undergoing a big personality shift to choose to align with the US at the expense of his own personal power.
I don't know a ton about Putin, but my basic model of him is that he enjoys having lots of power and likes being respected/feared, and doesn't particularly care about who he has to hurt or helping others. As opposed to someone like e.g George Washington, who stepped down and refused continued presidency even when people were begging him to continue to rule.
Why?
There are current US allies which have done more to undermine the USA than Russia, a non-ally. Putin's entire history from 2000 to now is him establishing Russian sovereignty and attempting to align his interests with that of Europe and NATO even as NATO and the US has expanded ever closer to their borders. Repeatedly. The USA has repeatedly been against any Euro-Russia friendliness because they want to maintain dominance over their Euro satropies. I think this is bad in the long-term for NATO (and the US).
Based on what? Do you think you've ever listened to Putin or consumed pro (or even neutral) putin sources?
Putin did step down and came back after the Clinton state department embarrassed the person Putin picked to take his place (Medvedev) over the NATO Libyan war.
Is this the same as Washington stepping down? No. Putin maintained significantly more control than Washington did after Washington's presidency, but never-the-less, he did step back from his absolute dominance established after the Chechen war.
I think Putin values his personal power too much to make for a good ally. Maybe he could be a crappy ally like Saudi Arabia or Pakistan, but pretty much the definition of being that sort of ally is just not complaining when the US puts their military bases near you I think. Which he doesn't seem willing to do given the whole Ukraine thing.
How so?
Nope, that's why I said I don't know a ton about him.
It doesn't count for much when he came back and continued to be an almost-dictator. I don't know much about the NATO Libyan war, but I doubt whatever happened really forced Putin to take power back, I think Russia would've been fine if he just retired.
floating joining NATO, resource agreements with Germans, among others
you don't wonder if your entire belief about Putin (and Russia generally) is based on NATO stooges feeding you what they want you to think?
some dork being quoted in the NYT from RAND isn't some objective source
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Putin attacking China over an island on the Amur instead?
Too much risk of escalation, environmental fall-out etc.
Even China supporting Ukraine would have created a potential conflict of loyalties for Ukraine, just as Soviet-Chinese funding enabled the Vietnamese to take Chinese aid and then turn on them once the US left.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link