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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
Total aura shift for Trump. He was a lame duck, dead in the water. The Fuentes doomers were winning. Trump had failed. He hadn't met his campaign promises, and his approval rating was in the gutter. But then, in an decisive display of competence and leadership, he ousted a dictator and took over a country that had been a thorn in the US's side for decades. And he did it at almost no cost.
His speech was fascinating and a dramatic shift from anything we have heard in the past 80 years. No "muh democracy." He talked about Venezuela's crumbling infrastructure and the inability of their government (deliberate or not) to stop the drugs. Their mortal sin was not dictatorship, it was incompetence and the negative impact their incompetence was having on the United States. He openly acknowledges that the oil will benefit the US, and says this is a good thing. And it resonates.
Trump wanted a big legacy-defining move, like buying Greenland, and this time he got it. Under his leadership, the United States took over Venezuela in a matter or hours at minimal cost. The outcome is truly astonishing. And he might not be done. He alluded that "something needs to be done" about the Mexican cartels. Destroying them would be a true legacy-maker. We'll see how it all works out in the long-term, and whether it becomes of a legacy of greatness or failure.
I predict we'll see a boost in Trump's approval ratings. The average person knows nothing about Venezuela except that it was bad and a problem. And now they see that Trump appears to have fixed it overnight.
There will be a bump in Trump's approval ratings and then they will settle back to where they were before except lower. The bump will be from people who will not be voting for the GOP (more educated, coastal) in the 2026 midterms. Meanwhile, Trump continues to hollow out his coalition.
George HW Bush had a huge shocking victory over Iraq in 1991 with approval ratings among the best ever recorded, and then he lost his re-election in 1992. Presidents do not win elections through foreign interventions in the US (and haven't for at least 75 years), but they certainly can lose them.
And the same will be true for Trump. Unless there are some major changes in policy (Trump's neocon interventions worldwide included) and a redirection towards domestic issues his voters actually care about with real major accomplishments, the GOP will have a 2006 style wipeout in the midterms. I would bet (and I will be) that near zero people will be voting for the GOP because of this Venezuela intervention (and Trump's other neocon shenanigans). Many will be staying home because of them, though.
Selling out your supporters and throwing them under the bus in favor of people who were demanding you be put in prison on Jan 7th, 2020, is a bold move. I guess we'll see if it works out for Trump.
Because of Ross Perot, mostly.
No, Perot was broadly popular across the spectrum for various different reasons. Perot voters were either drawn near equally from Clinton and Bush voters or were people who were motivated by Perot who otherwise wouldn't have bothered to show up.
Not to mention, Perot ran to a significant extent because he soured on the later Reagan's (read Bush's) derpy foreign policy decisions, opposed the Iraq War, and was supported by the antiwar populists.
If anything, this is another example of how foreign interventions, even ones which turn out to be victories, do not win elections, but certainly can lose them.
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