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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
I am baffled by my ignorance, but
Why?
What has led to this?
Really? You're that surprised? Or is this some sort of Socratic starting the dialog by just asking questions thing.
The USA has been hostile, demonizing (in a propaganda sense), and desperate for hostile state action against Venezuela for like nearly 2 decades now. The USA still has an imperial mindset where they consider South and Central America to be "theirs" in a sphere of influence. And they hate that Chavez was too socialist (by their perception), and failed to either jump or fall over dead when the USA commanded otherwise. The fact the rabbit keeps getting away with it alone seems to have created and Elmer Fudd like target obsession. One might also speculate the Venezuelan success might be a contagion that furthers socialist (really "social democracy") popularity in the Americas and a successful model of defiance of the USA imperial authority. One of the first things Chavez did was create a very close alliance and collaboration with Cuba, a persona non grata by the CIA/USA's standards, for example.
Again, sphere of influence matters. I've seen no indication Venezuela is more socialist than Scandinavia (which is in fact socialist - or at least used to be. But so embarrassingly successful that there has been a fairly successful history rewrite and brainwashing campaign, post 2005 or so, by neoliberal "experts" to convince people it is akshually like super capitalist) but Sweden is not in America's sphere of influence, so it doesn't get as mad and obsessed about regime change. China is definitely out of America's sphere of influence, so the USA's opinion about the fact Xi calls himself a literal Communist, or the fact he is a flagrant dictator that subverted the oligarchy that was going means jack shit. The latter aspect of Xi isn't actually important but Venezuela propaganda always pretends the USA actually cares about democracy so it should be noted to just get a measuring check on what Big Brother says versus what The Party actually does in revealed preferences. Anyway, with Venezuela, it's different, because the USA thinks it has an entitlement to tell them what government they're allowed to have.
Ultimately though: Trump is erratic, and probably mentally feeble from age if not insane. And he's surrounded by weirdo fascists. He just does things. He is flagging in the approval rates disastrously. He has not improved economic standards of living and he's not going to. There is a lot of indication that the party will be severely chastened in the midterms. He might even end up in jail by the end of his presidency, instead of subverting democracy by pulling a Maduro, like he clearly seems to want. At the same time, we still don't know about Trump's full involvement with a hostile foreign state spy (Mossad) that was involved in controlling/blackmailing American elites and politicians, by "raping kids" and general sexual coercive prostitution. He's admirably tried to flood the zone to get the goldfish public to forget his troublesome involvement with that, not think about the implications of it, but it's still not over. He needs a distraction.
So we get a Falklands War situation.
Finally, for the fascists surrounding Trump, the response might be a win win, based on calculated risk and win. A total successful foreign interventionist coup might distract the public with more zone shit. It might impress his base that are otherwise realizing they're miserable with vicarious jingoism "we are strong" vibes. And if "the left" responds with protests, then that just further validates his base which runs on "do whatever the enemy doesn't like" and general hatred/loathing as a political ideology.
Haven't you noticed how badly Trump and his fascist admin wants to provoke domestic chaos/violence, if not ideally "terrorism?" Remember when he was clearly trying to provoke an internal American shooting war by sending armed military to "blue states" with deliberate antagonism and a "go on and try something" mentality? How he would lie about Portland being in total chaos that needed strong statist militarized goons, responding to him, instead of local authorities? Unfortunately neither the locals of the likes of California protesting his brutal ICE policies nor the, let's face it likely low IQ, armed goons themselves took the bait. But this time... maybe? Provoking internal chaos and tribal factionalism could be Trump's ace in the hole to subvert democracy and cancel elections he's going to lose, if not run for a third term. Gotta "save the Republic." He and those around him are increasingly looking cooked otherwise.
Edit: Oh, and I forgot, it really is about oil. It's always at least partly about oil. People hate that it's so black and white. It really is a major factor.
Sweden is most assuredly not like Venezuela and has been undergoing a steady economic liberalization for decades. That it has single-payer healthcare and a high tax rate is not a refutation of the former. They are in no way “as socialist as Venezuela”.
England: 69 million people, 55 billionaires
France: 66 million people, 52 billionaires
Sweden: 10 million people, 45 billionaires
For the latter, those aren’t oligarchs and cronies. They mostly come from retail (H&M) and tech (Spotify), etc. Please show me the Venezuelan equivalents.
Under Chavez/Maduro, Venezuela nationalized the steel industry (SIDOR), agriculture, banking (including Banco de Venezuela), gold mining, telecommunications, electricity, fertilizer production (e.g., Fertinitro), cement, and transportation. There were agricultural land reforms and redistribution of that land. And more recently food and agribusiness supply chains, supermarkets, construction, and petrochemicals were moved under state control.
Please show me an equivalent wave of nationalizations that occurred in Sweden.
An obvious but clumsy parallel would be perhaps Norway’s Oljefondet and its oil and gas industry. But not being run by a pair of tinpot socialists, they’ve never done anything as retarded as pegging their currency to the price of crude or firing all the petrochemical engineers not sufficiently loyal to the governing party.
The nationalizations happened long ago, and as noted started to privatize in the 90s. These are not the same timelines, so you won't see the same. Sweden used to be more socialized, Venezuela used to be more marketized and started changing more dramatically under Chavez (and the USA freaked out). But the point is they are both mixed economies at this point and not profoundly different. Do you have objective evidence to the contrary? Randomly listing cherry picked set a state owned enterprises (oooh scary) is not a substantive comparison.
I'm just going to list Chinese SOEs because that's easier for me, and I don't think you're willing to call modern China a socialist success story. Though I'll say right now you're right that there would appear to be more state owned enterprises in Venezuela than Sweden.
Here is a gish gallop wiki link of Swedish state enterprises.
I tried asking an AI (Grok) to compare the private versus state aspects of comparative nations on the whole. Because I neither have the skillset nor the will to dig through hard stats myself, especially just for this post. Here's what it spit out, if you're curious:
Image summation if bottom text is annoying
Sweden
Overall estimate: The state (including public services and SOEs) accounts for roughly 25-30% of the economy in terms of production and employment, while the private sector dominates the remaining 70-75%.
Venezuela
Overall estimate: The state (including public services and SOEs) directly accounts for roughly 25-35% of the economy in terms of production and employment, with the private sector handling 65-75%—though much private activity operates under heavy state regulation and informal conditions. Key sectors like oil are almost entirely state-owned.
China
Overall estimate: The state (including public services and SOEs) accounts for roughly 30-40% of the economy in terms of production and value added, while the private sector dominates 60-70%—though private firms often face state influence via regulations, subsidies, and partnerships.
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