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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
So, from reading the mainstream press this morning (allegedly with sources) the plan now is that Maduro’s deputy (a loyal chavista figure obviously) is in charge, and nothing changes except that the government becomes friendlier to the US state and oil interests? I guess that counts as a win given this was a cheap and successful operation militarily, but for the long suffering Venezuelan people it doesn’t seem to offer much in the way of hope.
I am skeptical this will work out. The VP will be in a much less stable position than Maduro.
For starters, she will not command the same loyalty of the various power holders -- this is just coup-proofing 101.
Becoming a puppet of the US (at least as far as oil is concerned) will not play well with the population, and in particular not play well with the people in the party.
Apparently, crude oil is 90% of Venezuela's exports. My guess is that Trump will take most of that revenue for the US. While parts of that revenue previously ended in slush funds, part of it also stabilized the regime, paying for stuff the population needs or likes.
Then you have an opposition that will almost certainly try to seize the day.
Given that Trump has already threatened other neighboring countries, some people have a vested interest in making sure that his gamble will not pay off. While the US can certainly occupy and defend the oil rigs, pipelines are much harder to defend without the cooperation of local security forces. Even if the VP gives out the order that the security of the oil infrastructure is priority one (because her life depends on it), I doubt that she will have the clot to actually enforce that priority. Local security forces might decide that taking a bribe to let a vehicle carrying a drone and some explosives through a checkpoint is a better deal for them than arresting the suspects.
Of course, putting Maduro into the tender cares of the US court system is a rookie mistake which GWB would not have made. (Albeit he needed that because officially, the DoD was just aiding the DoJ in apprehending a criminal, which would be even less plausible if the accused ended in gitmo outside of the DoJ's jurisdiction.) Perhaps he really has strong evidence tying Maduro to drug smuggling which will force the court system to lock him up until a president pardons him (as US presidents are wont to do, lately). Otherwise, the judiciary is certainly the part of the government Trump has the least control over, and they might not deliver the verdict he wants.
Are they even making money on oil at all right now? Their cost of production is much higher than what it sells for, since all they have is heavy crude. In theory they could get some financing based on hypothetical future profits if the price of oil rises... but that's kind of hard when they're a tinpot dictatorship that nationalized a bunch of foreign oil property not that long ago. Nobody wants to loan them money.
I'm worried that this will lead to an even further destruction of their economy as their cocaine money goes away and anyone with any sort of means runs away to the US.
Well, Trump was seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker recently. Presumably you are wrong and they can extract crude oil for less than what they can get for it on the international market
Also, there are plenty of nations which could provide the machinery to extract oil in exchange for crude. It would not have to be a big investment in refining capabilities (which could then be nationalized), but just enough support to keep their oil rigs running for another six month or so.
No, that's not how the oil business works. First, while they do have a small amount of easily drilled conventional oil, that's not what gets people excited. When you hear people talk about Venezuela's "world's largest oil reserves," it's almost all unconventional oil (extra-heavy or oil sands). For that, just the basic costs of drilling it are very high. It's not uncommon for oil companies in Alberta, Canada to operate at a loss because it's difficult to restart production after shutting it down. But that doesn't mean they want to expand production or can make money that way. Even if Trump wants to gift them a ton of free equipment and expert petroleum engineers, that doesn't magically make it profitable.
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