Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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What kind of intervention would work? Like, if US strikes major IRGC headquarters would it be enough? Government buildings? Something else?
I am kind of ignorant on the relative forces alignment there - like, is there some organized movement that can take over? Do they have some Schelling points to gather around? I mean, coming out to the streets is nice but that alone does not lead to the change of government - there should be some kind of competing structure to displace the existing one? I mean there's the previous Shah's dynasty, but how popular they are? How much resources would they be able to control if they decided to take over? Who will be fighting in the streets and who will be commanding them on the ground?
At first, bombing facilities and leadership is a good start. So is denying air power to the regime.
Later, as the protestors gain control of areas, they can be protected from the air.
The immediate Schelling point is removing the regime from power. Any domestic opposition could only be very loosely organized in advance because Iran runs a highly effective police state. The exceptions are some separatist movements like they have in Kurdistan and Baluchistan.
So if this continues, the opposition will be organizing as it goes. Prominent figures who join from the regime, whether political or military leaders, could play an important role if they defect.
There is the former crown prince, who could serve as a transition figure to elections. Lots of controversy over how plausible that is.
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