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Vance is being discarded in favor of Rubio. There is a reason he was absent (and it isn't the pregnancy announcement) today.
Rubio is likeable, clearly smart, kinda white and kinda hispanic. He is one of the few pre-Trump Republicans who survived the purge and doesn't have a brown wife.
Rubio is the one with a real job and specific powers. It just happens that his job is particularly in focus right now.
Vance has a very vaguely defined job and nothing much to do right now. It doesn't change the fact that he's still a very important person and the most likely next Republican candidate for president.
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Rubio publicly supported Vance as Trump's successor a while ago on Fox News. Vance isn't being discarded for anything (he just isn't welcome at a European meetup.)
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I do not think Vance is being discarded so much as he is serving a very specific role. He is the Sargent Major of Trump's officer corps. IE the "top-kick", the guy who's job it is to get in people's faces and say the things you can't say for reasons of diplomacy.
His altercations with Zelensky and Scholz, along with his statements in the wake of Charlie Kirk's killing were all representative of this.
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The bettors think otherwise, giving odds of 50 percent for Vance versus just 16 percent for Rubio—though Rubio's odds have doubled recently.
With Trump out of the picture there's going to be a brutal factional fight and such factional fights are unpredictable.
Vance has no native support base, but that might be an asset if it helps him present himself as a compromise candidate between different factions. The establishment state level GOP's are mostly lined up behind Abbott, not Rubio. And Rubio himself has the benefit of being able to run as the sane man in the Trump admin- either 'it would go better with me in charge of the same agenda' or 'I did that, brought all those victories'.
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