This one is against rationalists because when Scott wrote his review that masks could be effective many of us trusted it.
I don't blame Scott for failing this one because doing review of hundreds of studies is hard and one person can hardly do it. But this clearly shows that rationalist way of thinking has no special formula, they can be easily mistaken and fall by accepting general consensus just like any other person.
I was impressed when Scott did his review about masks. I trusted it because there was no other clear evidence available. Cochrane hadn't done its review yet and NICE guidelines were silent on the issue. We vaguely knew from previous studies that masks are not effective, The WHO had said so. Suddenly everyone flipped and it was not because the evidence had changed. We simply wanted to believe that masks work and we mocked those who said “no evidence that masks help”.
Even with the belief that masks work, I never wanted mask mandates. I preferred recommendations only, so that no one was penalized or prohibited entry, travel etc if one doesn't want to wear mask. Scott unwillingly had been a catalyst for governments to introduce mask mandates and all this heavy handed approach has been for nothing.
Now we are back to square one, the evidence about masks is weak and it does not support their use even in hospital settings. We can all reflect now what happened in between during these 2 or 3 years. When I realized that Scott's review is clearly insufficient as evidence, I asked some doctors if they have any better evidence that masks work. Instead of getting answer I was told not to be silly, parachutes don't need RCTs and accused me of being covid denier for nor reason. Many so-called experts were making the same mistake as Scott by looking at the issue too emotionally. It is time to get back to reality and admit that it was a mistake and we should have judged the issue with more rational mind.
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I just saw something on this and started writing a top level post myself. Might as well consolidate to your thread, seeing as you got in first.
Here is the review of many studies: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub6/full
Here's a substack interview where the lead author talks about the report probably being suppressed back when they first finished it in late 2020. They were made to water down the conclusions as well:
https://maryannedemasi.substack.com/p/exclusive-lead-author-of-new-cochrane
I'm quite surprised because it seemed logical that masks would work. Why do doctors wear them if they don't work? In the past I've argued against the competence of the health authorities on the basis that they backflipped from dismissing masks to endorsing them. I thought at the time they made an error in starting off being anti-mask, since that goes against the logic of airborne diseases. But if they made an error in the other direction, that masks don't actually work and then suppressed it for years... That's much worse!
Fundamentally, if we don't have the skills and capability to quickly test and determine correctness or incorrectness of these things, we will not survive this century. We cannot expect just to have easy challenges forever. AI, more advanced bioweapons, nano... things are going to get harder not easier. We must get things done correctly, regardless of whether it makes people uncomfortable. Could we not have gotten some prisoners and deliberately infected them with COVID, just to see how effective masks are in various scenarios? Nobody had any qualms about doing roughly the same thing to the elderly in New York!
https://www.propublica.org/article/andrew-cuomos-report-on-controversial-nursing-home-policy-for-covid-patients-prompts-more-controversy
I maintain that there should be extremely high stakes for such failures. Our species cannot afford to get these things wrong and not learn from the mistake. Imprisonment is the absolute bare minimum, there should be executions. We should be absolutely, totally certain of whether masks work on an airborne disease that's THREE YEARS OLD! Top officials should be happily staking their lives on this, since they know they've taken every possible step to be totally certain that their advice is correct.
Fauci delenda est.
Thanks for that second link with the interview.
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