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This is a continuation of a topic brought up in one of the AAQCs for January. Hat tip to @birb_cromble
I value and believe what @birb_cromble wrote. I think AI is both over and under hyped (more on that below). I believe birb's report that a team of good devs are looking at it and saying "wtf ... this is ... ok ... maybe?" I think @RandomRanger had a similar comment that I am struggling to find (although, to be fair, it was pointed out that Ranger was using copilot which is a known dumpster fire).
On the other hand, I have direct, personal experience with AI (to be specific, as I kind of hate the blanket term, "AI", coding oriented LLMs) writing good code quickly and accurately. I've had past colleagues far more gifted than myself send 11pm "holy shit" texts based on their own projects. The head of Anthropic, has publicly stated that LLMs write 100% of the code at Antrhopic now. And the guy behind ClawdBot / MoltBook (or whatever its called now) has openly discussed how his own deployment of ClawdBot was thinking and executing ahead of him.
If it's all hype, it is the mother of all hype cycles and something that approaches a mass movement of hysteria. This would be outright falsehoods and lying on a level usually reserved for North Korean heads of state and Subsaharan cult leaders.
I don't think it's that. I am, however, developing the idea that both sides are actually right at the same time in different directions. To explain that, we're going to have to talk about software and software companies a little bit.
1. CRUD
Create, read, update, and delete or "CRUD" is what is at the core of almost every piece of software that is above the operating system level. CRUD is definitely at the core of almost every piece of software that is sold from one company to another (business-to-business or b2b) and most software sold to customers (business-to-customers or b2c). There are exceptions, of course, some of them quite large. But the fact remains that most software is about having data somewhere, storing it, asking it questions, modifying it (and unmodifying it), and, perhaps, deleting it (note, however, that with storage being fundamentally cheap now, deletion is a kind of philosophical state. Your e-mails for instance, are often not deleted until you double-for-serious-delete-them and then wait 30+ days).
A junior developer can build a CRUD app on their computer at home in less than a week. By hand, from scratch, zero LLM involved. Building a CRUD app is often a final assignment for mid-level undergraduate CompSci work. You, yes you, can build a CRUD app today with one good, long prompt to any of the big LLMs. It will be complete, with minimal to zero bugs.
Salesforce, at its core, is a CRUD app. Salesforce is worth almost $200 bn while the CRUD app you build is worth exactly nothing. Why is this?
2. Enterprise
The holy grail of all b2b software is their first enterprise customer. What defines "enterprise?" It's a bit of squishy term, but it means a big company. 1,000+ employees is more or less agreed upon as the minimum, though this may vary depending on the market niche you're in. Why are enterprises so prized? Because you're selling your product at scale (usually in terms of individual user licenses or "seats") to a customer who can pay a six, seven, or even eight figure annual bill without worrying about it and will not switch to one of your competitors quickly (....usually). This is where b2b software companies get their explosive valuations from and where founders get capital-F Fuck you money. Salesforce, our CRUD app supreme, has enterprise deals, probably, with every F500 company and thousands more very large companies. They recently announced a deal with the U.S. Army (lol, ELLE-OH-FUCKING-ELLE to that one). Salesforce has more enterprise than a Star Trek reboot.
But isn't an enterprise CRUD app still a CRUD app?
Yes, yes it is. But it's a CRUD app that;
To return to the CRUD app you just built at home, it works just fine on your laptop! Can it export seamlessly to Excel or Word? No. Can I log into it remotely from my laptop while I am in the Delta lounge at O'Hare? No. What if four people want to work on it together at the same time. Uh, no - you don't even have a login into it! You just start it and boom, you're CRUD-ing around.
So much of the value of "big" software is all of the non-core functionality that is bolted on top of it in overlapping layers. This is also the dirty secret of what a lot of FAANG engineers do - write integrations between one product or service and another. They are not thinking up the next killer app, but essentially acting as digital plumbers in the world's largest city.
In the startup world, core functionality is often complete within the first year or two. It kind of has to be to gain your first customers. Then, so much of "product development" is figuring out where you're going to spend your time building integrations and then balancing that against actual new feature requests. The smart product managers realize that they can unite those two things and integrate a new feature from a different product. Two birds, one stone, zero actual innovation. Give that man a promotion.
There was a unicorn that literally was an integration hub for different products and services.
3. New vs legacy software
This is where we start to get into "both sides may be right" territory. From my experience, it seems AI is now quite good at writing new software, even fairly complex systems. It can do this because it doesn't have to make any assumptions about how anything already works. If it makes assumptions based on the user's intent, it is usually decent at carrying those assumptions through development to the finished product. In cases where it is not, you, the human, have to debug. Debugging, in this case, however, is often no harder than saying "Hey, this part doesn't work, and I think it might be because of xyz..."
This is not the case when you deploy AI against a legacy codebase, which is exactly what @birb_cromble mentioned. This is because legacy codebases are evolutionary products of a system changing over time. Ideally, each major upgrade - and even the minor ones too - to a system are documented. What "documented" means, however, varies wildly across developer teams. For sometimes, it's nothing more than a quick changelog of bullet points. For other teams, they write about the decision making process that led to changes. Most documentation is incomplete or somewhat ambiguous. I would argue that, right now, almost all legacy documentation is in no way written for LLMs to use well in their context windows.
4. Documentation
Unless it is. That link is to a good blog post on the recent fracas at Tailwind labs. Tailwind labs makes software and gives its core functionality away for free. This is the same model as Red Hat linux. They make money by having developers realize that they, Tailwind, have already built premium features on top of the core and will sell those features and hosting to companies that want it. I actually really like this so called "open core" business model because I think it's philosophically more in line with OG software ideals. Linux and its various derivatives have been free - in some form - since the 1970s, and the world's infrastructure runs on it. If Linux had been locked down from the start, I am convinced computers would still be weirdo specialty scientific equipment.
Anyways, back to Tailwind. Tailwind had to lay off about 75% of its staff because AIs read their whole documentation - which was very, very good - and can, now, build all of the premium services on their own. This fucking sucks, it's bad, nobody likes it. OpenSource is a necessary part of the software ecosystem. Even the most evilest of the FAANGS pour millions of dollars into sponsoring open source projects every year - because they rely on lots of those projects in their own code bases. Now, however, LLMs that scrape the internet, potentially, pose an existential threat to opening up your documentation plus codebase. It's as if you've just created one million free forever expert devs. Furthermore, this also exposes a dark pattern. If you want to retain your IP, lock down your documentation, intentionally obfuscate it, or just don't post it and only support your product with bill-per-hour in-house tech support teams.
The good news, however, is that most documentation is such shit that this will not happen.
But let's return to the main thread: AI under and overhyped at the same time.
My suspicion with @birb_crombles code base is that it isn't completely documented. This is absolutely NOT a shot at birb. I say this because, for any legacy code base, it is essentially impossible to build and maintain complete documentation that describes not only how the system operations, but how it evolved over time. This is valuable and necessary context for an LLM. All of the assumptions it makes about various libraries and modules can be very, very wrong because it doesn't have the legacy "evolutionary" documentation to inform it of various design choices and modifications. Birb and his team have that context as tacit knowledge in their brains and shared collective intelligence. "Hey why does thing x do action y?" , "Oh, team A needed that special feature so they could do necessary report z" , "cool, got it." That 10 second exchange across the the aisle with another dev is worth approximately 1 million lines of well written context to an LLM (1 million may or may not be an exaggeration.)
Birb said as much in his post. He wrote:
Bravo, Birb! I mean this sincerely. Phrased differently, Birb is saying that once his team provided extra-context documentation, the LLM was performant. However, by doing so, his team pretty much arrived at a state where the fix was obvious and easy.
Very well done documentation does lead to this. However, documentation is literally endless if you want to cover not only the system now but how it evolved over time. Good technical writers at easily $100k+ and they are necessarily slower than writing new code. Most companies will not invest in this because, economically, they can't.
4. Ships and Planes
Existing legacy software is like a ship. It's big and slow, sure, but it's moving a lot of mass and is more or less steady and stable. One-shotted LLM applications - like Clawdbot - are like planes - fast, soaring, sexy, and, sometimes, they crash spectacularly. The thing to point out, however, is that planes cannot move, economically, the bulk that a ship can. What I mean here is that all of the evolutionary design choices, system revisions, and tacit knowledge that a legacy codebase reflects is a very bad payload to deploy an LLM against. There are too many unknown unknowns and relationships that are hidden so as to be very improbable. An LLM is a probabilistic machine, so it relies on what makes sense on average - not what is real in a specific circumstance.
But deploying an AI against the clear blue sky (like a plane) is its most advantageous arena because it can just assume the average and build the thing from scratch.
Big, legacy CRUD apps - and, absolutely, more specialized apps - aren't really in danger of being disrupted by AI in the immediate future. 5 to 7 years from now, ehhhh, I am not so sure. The folks who are absolutely totally fucked as in right now, today are any startups that have launched a CRUD app with the idea that they'll do all the dirty work of building it into an enterprise offering. The market for that is quickly evaporating. Instead, internal tool teams will just use LLMs to make their own CRUD app, wrap it in their existing security etc. stack and use it internally. This may equate out to as much as $250k of combined labor hours and API credits but, 1) that would be at the high end and 2) that would be a one time cost (besides internal maintenance) instead of the the recurring six, seven, eight figures of spend to a third party.
5. Conclusion
I hope I've done a reasonable job in showing how both sides are right. I believe @birb_cromble. I believe, because I see, that pretty big names in software, who were even AI skeptics (roon on twitter, for instance) are now admitting to 100% agentic coding. The difference is in the starting point and the legacy debt or bulk that a given party engages with.
Europe's strategy seems to be to bring down the U.S. tech sector by attempting to impose more onerous regulations like GDPR on it. See, for example, the "Online Safety Act" and how the UK's Ofcom is unsuccessfully enforcing it by emailing threats to American companies, notably ones not under UK jurisdiction.
No, the obvious answer is the true one here. Europe and the UK really really hate that the fundamental, society-altering technology that all of their citizens are using >5hrs a day is completely out of their control, as is the AI that they are hoping will become the new basis of their economy. And they are fundamentally incapable of conceiving that the answer might be less regulation rather than more. The closest American example is when America legislated the sale of TikTok (did that ever go through?).
I personally have mixed feelings about this. Having your public places under the control of another country is in some ways safer than having them under the control of your own country - broadly I like that Musk can tell Starmer to take a long walk off a short pier. But this cuts both ways, and I don't blame the various governments involved for being antsy around it.
This is in no way the obvious answer. The actual reason Europe and the UK hate the US tech companies, especially recently, is that the first amendment allows for freedom of speech which European governments absolutely cannot abide - exposure of the scandals of the elite and what they are doing is anathema to the corrupt and honestly evil governments that they have in place (see the recent disclosures about Peter Mandelson). Less regulation would in no way achieve their goals of censoring speech and keeping their population ignorant, which is why they are simply trying to use their existing powers to shut down foreign sources of uncensored communication services.
Yes, it did, and users are now abandoning the platform in droves due to the removal of pro-Palestinian content, the mandatory amplification of Trump/Zionist content and censorship which means private messages containing the word "Epstein" cannot be sent.
While there is some validity to the general point, the idea that Mandelson/Epstein is an example of a specifically European need for censorship to conceal elite depravity is silly - the decision to do the Epstein cover-up was taken in the US, and the British have promptly thrown every Epstein associate under the bus as soon as the Americans allowed their involvement to become public. The deroyalling of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and banning from the financial industry of Jes Staley remain the only meaningful punishments of Epstein clients, and Mandelson is now the subject of a criminal investigation. The reason why the UK police investigation into Mandelson only just started is because the Americans kept details of his wrongdoing secret in order to protect US elites who participated in his crimes - in the case of Mandelson particularly, Jamie Dimon, and in the case of the Epstein files more broadly Donald Trump.
90+% of what European authorities want to censor is either accurate information about the harm caused by immigration, or malicious lies exaggerating the harm caused by immigration. And, of course, the reason why free speech is an issue in the first place is the difficulty in distinguishing between the two.
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That is the same thing that I said, in much more polemical language, but it's only part of the story. Yes, various European and non-American (Aussie, UK, Canada) governments are very upset that, from their perspective, unfortunate dirty laundry is being aired in public. Some of them surely have things they would like to hide, others rightly or wrongly believe that the country would be better off and less febrile if matters weren't presented in a maximally inflammatory way and optimised for engagement.
But there are also lots of other things that people are concerned about. They really don't like the effect that addictive Instagram and TikTok etc. are having on the ability of young people to concentrate or socialise, they don't like Grok in general and the nudifying features in particular, etc.
Ultimately, both voters and governments generally prefer for regulation to be possible, even if they decide not to do it. Having a big part of life subject to the whims of Washington and Silicon Valley rubs people the wrong way.
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We Euros love regulation and censorship both. It's not just one or the other.
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Yeah, it is funny to see that underneath all that socialism and all that postmodern philosophical masturbation, Europe really still believes in feudalism and is furious that us new world peasants won't pay the King's Tax! Don't we know that they are our betters!
I don't know how to say this but you're the richest and most powerful people in the world. This kind of discussion always turns into a Bravery Debate but regulation like GDPR is more about clawing back some agency from America than it is trying to tax US industry.
As the Right discovered five years ago, and the Left discovered when Musk bought X, network effects and the overall stack just don't allow for 'make-your-own' social media.
(I don't actually like or agree with the vast majority of this regulation, though I think that GDPR specifically was a step in the right direction of forcing companies to give more than absolutely zero shits about the privacy of their customers).
Normally I wouldn't be quite so thin-skinned but the Greenland fiasco drove home for me just how worrying it is that half of the most powerful country in the world thinks of us as being essentially a pantomime villain from a Mel Gibson movie.
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We do, though. In 2024, US tech companies paid more in fines alone (€3.8 billion) than the income tax revenue of the entire European tech sector (€3.2 billion).
https://atr.org/brussels-exploits-american-tech-companies-by-enforcing-heavy-fines-for-regulatory-non-compliance/
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