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This is why I regard it as pretty comparable to the “Kirk Shooter was MAGA theory.” “SIG lol” as the entire basis for the theory is pretty comparable to “his parents were MAGA” as both are just probabilistic arguments while all the direct evidence we have is contrary. The grey jacket guy didn’t react as if the gun in his hand went off, and he looked behind him over the opposite shoulder. As far as I know ICE/DHS has not even claimed this misfire theory in their own defense, it is 100% cope. As you said, is it strictly possible a misfire happened despite all the evidence? Sure. In the same sense that it’s strictly possible Kirk’s shooter is a groyper chud despite the evidence.
It's even worse, really -- I'm sure you could establish a reasonably strong correlation between Trump-voting parents and MAGA-chud children over the entire population; on the other hand there are millions of SIG 320s out there, with very few NDs at all and zero strongly confirmed ADs. The probabalistic argument isn't even particularly strong.
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