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daguerrean


				

				

				
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joined 2024 September 11 15:35:50 UTC

				

User ID: 3252

daguerrean


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 1 user   joined 2024 September 11 15:35:50 UTC

					

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User ID: 3252

How long do you think The Motte will continue? Will we still be here in thirty years?

The number one complaint I hear from women about porn is that it gives men a very confused, one-sided view of sex. You could imagine how irritating it is to hear that men spend 30 minutes a day jerking off to porn for decades and then one of them finally gets to fuck you and has no idea how to bring you to orgasm and you leave the experience totally unsatisfied. Consistently!

Women will complain about porn but these reasons are largely post-hoc fictions. They have a gut-level aversion to their partner experiencing lust towards other women that are typically younger and better-looking than them. But because of their vague sex-positive pop feminist beliefs they don’t know how to articulate that and will backfill a reason that sounds less jealous and more socially acceptable.

You would see the same if they found their partner was having sex with dogs. This would greatly upset them but they would state the reason is something to do with animals being unable to consent, which of course is not the real reason.

I think Sabrina Carpenter is an interesting case study here. Her music is ridiculously sexually explicit, she performs in lingerie and a core part of her act is miming heterosexual sex positions. That said, I get the sense her audience/fanbase is approximately 0% heterosexual male. It gives me the same vibe as burlesque, which seems to be a major form of entertainment for blue tribe women in major cities yet has zero sexual currency with hetero men. Burlesque performances will include lingerie and actual nudity from women, but I don’t get the sense any straight men are watching burlesque compilations on pornhub.

This is something I’ve been thinking about lately, but I feel burlesque is sort of spiritually akin to male war reenactors. They are both reenacting the past to give themselves gender valdiating experiences, men getting to pretend to experience heroism and self-sacrifice in combat, frumpy feminists getting to experience a reenactment of sexual desirability

What percentage of college-educated middle-class women are on dating apps anyway?

I’m going to guess the vast majority, this is just how people meet now, it’s how I met my wife ten years ago. And every year women become more conditioned to find cold approaches at markets or bookstores more creepy and less acceptable

I prefer Rutters, they just seem a bit nicer imo

If I wished to try to insult you, off the top of my head there could have been the low hanging fruit of deploying impolite synonyms for “poor” and “overweight”—or, more softly, those words in themselves—for poor and overweight are descriptions of which you’ve recounted yourself

Just beautiful apophasis. You absolutely cooked em here. HereAndGone is not recovering from this any time soon. I’m in awe of your mastery Sloot

Seems extremely high to me. Daycare for our toddler is $90 a day, and that isn’t some ghetto “Learing Center” full of Somalians either, which I expect would be substantially cheaper.

I know we all love to fantasize about how this forum is overrun with federal agents and terrorists but come on. Let’s be real here for a minute.

I’m going to be honest I don’t understand any of this. Like what does any of this mean, I’m having trouble even parsing it.

I guess I’ve lived in Miami. And there was like obvious situations that you could fix. And I did 30s conversation and fixed it. Then did some racists shit and said white guy fixed it. And no one cared. White guy fixed it and everyone was just happy the issue was solved. I think Venezuela is there.

Unbelievable. Just, why? I can’t perceive any way this is more justified than Russia invading Ukraine. As much as I hate the left for being anti-White this may have crossed the line where I would attend an anti-Trump protest it’s so unjustified.

I truly deserve the Fell for it Again Award

If Vivek started a new Protestant church tomorrow, who has the authority to say it’s fake?

Someone outside Christianity could criticize Christianity the same way. They could say some hypothetical larper could come along calling himself a Christian despite teaching Jesus never existed, and who would have authority to say he wasn’t a Christian? Would this be an effective own of Christians? No, obviously not. Protestantism is decentralized but so is Christianity itself

How’s Christmas for all Motteizens? Get any good presents? Give any good presents? Anybody want a present, like a game on Steam or something?

Are we genuinely weighting the continued existence of the Mona Lisa (of which there are many copies, its not some hidden gem) over a human life at that point?

It’s worth a great many human lives by most reasonable measures

I stumbled across a twitter thread on the idea that SIDS is a conspiracy and actually just a way of covering up infanticide. I can't say whether I believe it not, but the story was at least internally consistent.

I have always felt this. I wouldn't say infanticide but more like negligence and accident. I think doctors understand that new parents can be tired and stressed and shit happens. You are breastfeeding your baby in bed, you fall asleep, roll over, blankets smother baby. I think a doctor looking at that would say "Why ruin this parent's life with guilt when it was really an understandable mistake?" And so they give them a medical-sounding description that connotes a random medical event, like the baby just mysteriously had a stroke or something (even though the definition of SIDS makes no such claim, it is totally consistent with accidental smothering), mostly to allow them to just move on with their lives and treat it as an act of god.

Testable predictions if my theory is true: SIDS rates will be higher among lower IQ parents and higher among blacks, probably also higher among single mothers.

The precision does not bother me. Trump’s deranged post is typical for him. I will admit however that People Magazine was shockingly quick, in a way I have never seen before, to blame the son. Do you have any theory that explains these peculiarities?

Did even a single, solitary person die from starvation due to the recent SNAP suspension? People just seem to be pissed at the inconvenience of having to go to a pantry that has a worse selection of items.

The party in power is not owed the votes of the minority. That said, minority demands can clearly be unreasonable. Give us full communist revolution or we won’t support your budget. This entire situation comes down to how reasonable you think each side was, and naturally people will just go with their priors on this question. I tend to think, by rejecting the CR, the Democrats were less reasonable. However, they control media and people will generally primarily blame the party in power if anything goes wrong. On the whole I think Democrats won this one. They can spin their surrender as compassion for their state-supported pet classes.

This is basically like if a black guy came here in our days of HBD discussions and posted some 19th Century screed by a KKK Grand Wizard then proceeded to flame out saying we all wanted to put blacks back in chains. Do you think that would be a reasonable reaction?

I would put gait analysis in the same category as bite mark analysis, handwriting analysis and forensic firearm analysis. All pretty much worthless, probably mostly used for parallel construction purposes

The literally biochemical explanation may not be technically true but the general idea seems accurate and is backed up by plenty of Science™️

I know absolutely nothing about Ukraine or Russia and I don’t even follow the news about it outside of Motte comments. Through the years though it has been obvious that pro-Russia commentators have generally made fools of themselves. They always adopt this cynical, smart and worldly tone, sneering at the soyfacing West. All I know is that I’ve been hearing them say for like 4 years that Ukraine was on the verge of total collapse and the war only had months left. Or that Germany would totally collapse come winter 2023.

Being ignorant of absolutely everything else, I have heard vastly more false predictions from the pro-Russian side. Given that, I’ll register a prediction based solely on the commentariat's track record: if the war ends in the next year it will come from a diplomatic resolution, there will be no large scale collapse of Ukrainian forces, Russian commenters will keep being wrong about literally everything.

3/10. Hideous is strong but unattractive is appropriate.

Weirdly I essentially never encounter even the most mildly political comments at work. I work in tech, mostly with asians, and for the most part they seem apolitical. Occasionally there will be a tentative “topical” Trump joke, but I don’t sense any seething anger behind it. Generally asians seem to value seeming composed and professional. I encounter political comments most from white boomers I know through my hobby. The typical tech companies I’ve worked at seem to be good at upholding an unspoken “no politics” norm, even based in SF with a 90% anti-Trump workforce. I haven’t socialized with a person under 40 outside of work in many years though

The issue here is that they know they should bet based on the 2/3 odds, they just think that the concept of "probability" they have in their heads is some ineffable philosophical concept that goes beyond measuring odds.

I'm surely outing myself as a mathlet here, but perhaps you have the energy to explain where I err. I fully accept that if you are forced to put 10 dollars on a bet as to whether the coin was heads or tails every time you are awakened, then betting tails every time is the best strategy, in that it will pay out the most in the long-run.

Where I draw issue is equating this with "belief". If this experiment was going to be run on me right now, I would precommit to the tails-every-time betting strategy, but I would know the coin has 50-50 odds, and waking would not change that. To me, it seems the optimal betting strategy is separate from belief. Because in deciding it is the correct move to bet tails every time, I don't sincerely believe the coin will come up tails every time, I've merely decided this is the best betting strategy. I see no real connection between betting strategy and genuine belief.

Now where it is odd to me is that if you repeated the experiment on me 100 times, where 50 runs would be heads and 50 runs would be tails, then asked me while I was awoken what the odds I truly believe are, I would have no problem saying I think there is a 2/3 chance that I am in a tails experiment vs in a heads experiment. Why should one single experiment feel different and change that? I'm not entirely sure.

I tested it on the one subject I know best and it is worthless. Sentences are occasionally completely randomly inserted nonsequiturs and there is outright fabricated information that is known to AI to be false (I’m not talking about obscure facts, like if I asked ChatGpt now “Is X true” it would know the correct answer). This may improve in the future, but right now this is awful and completely useless.