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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   28063 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026

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On priors, I would find it more likely that young men harass some underage girls than that some underage girls get out of their way to threaten some young immigrant men, but stranger things than the latter have happened.

The bayes calc on it would just be a total win for the "he touched the girls" take.

If you are using judicial verdicts to update your world view

Reminds me of the Australian SAS warcrime case. Footage was released of what was inarguably an extra judicial killing of a captured and unarmed man. Like, I'm ex Australian army and not even I could deny that these guys were guilty of murder. But there were still hundreds of people saying "they haven't been convicted yet" and "the investigation hasn't been concluded."

https://old.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/1lccwjc/australian_sasr_during_their_deployment_to/

But we could see it with our own eyes. You can see in real time the murder happening, zero grounds for self defence. In war you get away with shooting the odd POW, sure. That guy could have been making IEDs or have personally killed Australians, sure. But if you get caught on camera you go to jail. That's how the world works. Why do people insist on the outcome of the investigation or the court ruling when they can see with their own eyes the crime occurring.

It's a weird deferral of responsibility, even though we know the courts are wrong all the time.

It immediately brings to mind consummate bureaucrat Buck Turgidson:

President Muffley: General Turgidson, I find this very difficult to understand. I was under the impression that I was the only one in authority to order the use of nuclear weapons.

Gen. Turgidson: That's right, sir, you are the only person authorized to do so. And although I, uh, hate to judge before all the facts are in, it's beginning to look like, uh, General Ripper exceeded his authority.

The bayes calc on it would just be a total win for the "he touched the girls" take.

I tend to agree with this. Also, from what I understand about the UK system for criminal prosecution, it seems unlikely that these charges would have been filed against these defendants in the absence of strong evidence of guilt.

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