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I've previously posted on the Motte about the state-funded Swedish Investigative Committee For a Future with Children (Swed. Utredningen för en framtid med barn) with instructions to look into the recent decline in fertility. Recently the Committee released its second report more closely detailing the root cause of the decline – which women are not having children anymore? As before here's a link in case you know the Swedish or want to use an AI to give you the uptake. https://framtidmedbarn.se/rapport/nr-2-fran-hoga-till-sjunkande-fruktsamhetstal-hur-ser-situationen-i-sverige-ut/
The focus of this report is a lot narrower than the previous one which means there are fewer fun takeaways. Two facts stand out. There's been a lot of speculation about coupling not working, people delaying childrearing so they are unable to get that third child, et cetera, but the report doesn't bear any of these concerns out. Men and women are still moving in together, but the major driver of the decline is that there's a growing cohort in which the couple never decides to have kids. A lot of DINK-couple (Double Income, No Kids) are no longer as eager to become DICKs (Double Income, Couple o' Kids) as they used to be. This fact is concerning because I have a suspicion it has a strong potential to rapidly initiate a self-replicating demographic spiral. DINKs have more resources compared to DICKs, and if more people choose to stay DINKs then life for DICKs will probably become even harder, which in turn will lead to even fewer DICKs. I think the carrot for DICKs probably won't be enough here: society probably also needs to put a dent in the wallet of the DINKs, maybe throught some tax scheme, to encourage more childrearing.
Beyond that the report also has a few tidbits of interest here and there. The common narrative of a foreign underclass quickly and decisively outbreeding the native population isn't quite on the mark for example, as the report points out that second-generation immigrants tend to have about as many children as natives (first-generation is another story, and a large part of the very justifiable demographic anxiety in Europe). On the other hand that also means immigration cannot possibly solve the issue long term or even medium term; while many children of immigrants often learn Swedish quite poorly, commit more crimes than average and remain largely unintegrated for vast periods of time, they at least seem to take our individualistic childless culture to heart.
This is less meaty than the previous post on the subject, but I think that's enough to bring some fodder for discussion. What do you think should be done to support our DICKs? Should DINKs be made to pay to make their lives easier? Is the reports take naive on the questions of immigration and demography?
Some interesting plums:
So, the usual "women are too educated! going to college defers fertility! careers and work depress fertility!" explanations don't hold there.
So I would ask, what generational cohort is coming of age and getting ready to have kids in 2010? Depending on cut-off points, late Gen X (those born in 1980), early Millennials (born 1981-1985). I'm using an age range of 25-30 here as "ready to marry and have kids", which is my own personal view.
Could it be people in this particular grouping (1980-85 births) have different attitudes to life, career, marriage and children? I think it very possible. Wikipedia article on the Millennials has an entire section about "they're not getting married and having sex as much as their predecessors, this might be why":
2010 is also after the 2008 economic crash, which was more or less severe/prolonged depending what country you lived in, but I imagine it had a large impact on young adults about "get an education to get a good job to ensure you have enough money for a decent life, because circumstances are risky and so you need to put your future first, before dating and marriage and babies".
And again, if you put off having that first child to later or never, you're not going to have second or third children. Also, cohabitation is not leading to marriage (even though it started off as 'trial marriage', that is, make sure you're both compatible before getting married) since it has now become acceptable as its own thing. I think cohabitation also, because it's not marriage even though it's nearly marriage, does put a barrier to having children for a slew of reasons ranging from economic to personal decisions.
So if everyone around you is putting off serious long-term relationships, getting married later or not at all, putting off having children or not at all, and concentrating on economic security and having a good time while at the same time contrasting how much tougher it is for you than your parents' generation, it makes it easier for you to do likewise.
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