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I am saying that it will be easy, yes. $40B is not a lot for China, a price hike is priced in.
Then I think you are missing an important point. You can't easily swap out the entirety of Iranian oil output for an equivalent amount of other oil. The "other oil" will need to go up price high enough to drive out the bottom portion of the market. Now we get a live experiment in finding a new equilibrium price which won't be $40 billion. Who is willing to divert oil away from existing customers to China and what sort of price will they be charging? This will be neither quick nor cheap.
Oil supply is elastic. Gulf Arabs are not operating at 100% capacity, nor are many other providers. It very likely will be on the order of $40B.
Usually oil supply is pretty elastic, but most of the quickest and largest elasticity comes from the exact spots that are currently blocked up, if I'm not mistaken.
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