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Are the markets pricing the effects of this war correctly? As far as I understand it, the blockade (which seems to be in effect) of the strait of Hormuz is going to reduce the amount of oil in the market by about 20%, until either the war ends, or another pipeline workaround is found. This is going to be absolutely catastrophic for the world economy, especially for Asia, as there isn't a ready substitute. Even in the US, where we produce enough oil to cover domestic consumption, increased prices are going to hurt consumers and businesses significantly. It's not just oil: sulfuric acid for mining is made from Middle Eastern Crude, most of Europe's LNG comes from Qatar, and global air shipping routes are also going to become more costly. Even if we reach an agreement with Iran tomorrow (unlikely given the nature of the regime), the supply chain shock would be at least on the level of the Iraq War in 2003.
Yet the SP500 is only down 2% from January this year. Are investors not taking this war seriously, or is there really nowhere else to park money other than in US tech stocks?
I personally sold all my index funds and random stocks a few days ago and reinvested the money into US Oil Companies and 3-months CDs.
Iran isn't indiscriminately attacking ships. So, e.g., Chinese vessels have been able to transit without being attacked.
This means the global economic impact will be much less severe than if the Strait was actually closed (for instance with uncharted mines).
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