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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   615 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 19, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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It was not unforseeable that Iran would close the strait.

It was. So what? There's no "plan" in existence that may preclude this possibility - of course, except ignoring the treat from Iran until they make nukes, and then face the consequences. Calling it "bad plan" is assuming there's some "good plan" that somehow magically makes it impossible for Iran to close the Hormuz. What would be that "good plan"? I submit it does not exist and can not exist.

If you insist on a military solution, the effects of a strait closure could have been substantially mitigated.

Refilling the strategic petroleum reserve is the obvious one in hindsight.

We could have pressured the gulf countries to invest in pipeline infrastructure to bypass the strait.

We could have waited for Venezuelan oil production to ramp up (or better yet, used the added oil security to stop worrying about the Middle East for good).

We could have brought-in Ukrainian experts to teach our forces about drone warfare before we got into another conflict.

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