This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
You're missing what a bubble is.
A technology can have profound long-term effects that are positive for everybody, yet still generate a bubble for investors who rush to try and take advantage of that effect and don't end up actually investing in the correct manifestation to make any money. The bubble is from the POV of those attempting to speculate on something, the actual relevant technology is immaterial
It's always a bit sad to watch all the artcels and redditors longing for "the bubble to be over". They're not talking about inflated stocks, but about the technology. As if the whole tech is just going to go away or go backwards and stop taking their jobs. They don't seem to understand that yes there is a speculative bubble and it may burst to some extent, but the tech is not the bubble and it will only grow bigger and better.
@RandomRanger I don't think the bubble is in NVDA so much as in the multitudes of small speculative startups that attract money based on them supposedly developing or using AI, or the push in all sorts of companies to be part of the trend.
But if those small companies go under, who cares? It won't have much economic effect, startups go under all the time. That's capitalism.
It's the hyperscalers who are too big and rich to go under and Nvidia that matter.
Suppose OpenAI collapses because of all their debt and spending. There'd just be a feeding frenzy as Microsoft just takes over their researchers, Anthropic and Google gain marketshare, maybe Chinese companies also make gains.
I guess that's what you're saying about the tech not going away but I don't see how anything would significantly change. People would just go to Gemini instead of 'Chat'. Kling or Seedance or Grok Imagine instead of Sora. What would the bubble popping actually mean?
It would mean a lot of shareholders losing a lot of money. Same as in the dotcom crash. That's who will care. The fact that it probably won't be your problem does not mean it does not/will not exist.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
They believe gen AI will be like NFTs, where the general consensus is that the technology was overhyped and has limited use cases and was mocked both at the time and in hindsight. They believe gen AI has few to no actual use cases and is essentially useless technology that wastes water, electricity, and compute to create text and imagery that is unreliable, useless, and has no function.
They’re wrong, but they’re very confident. In the case of gen AI images and video, they have enough numbers that they’ve been able to make gen AI art controversial and low-status, which in creative fields is a death sentence. They believe they can combine that power with generative AI becoming more expensive to use because of a burst bubble ending cheap generation for end-users to make it both low-status and expensive.
That said, I get the sense that uptake of AI generated artwork is slowly growing in the corporate space, particularly as an adjunct or aid to human design instead of a replacement.
A line found in the dictionary entry for redditor. :P
In the late 1940s, something like 96% of respondents in an American survey said they would never buy a TV. One generation later, everyone did.
While it is true that there is a lot of low quality slop and baseless hype/marketing of that slop, the potential for AI/agents to soon replace a lot of human labor should be obvious. Maybe that's the painful part that it is tempting or emotionally necessary to sweep under the rug.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Indeed, we can see that when the dot com bubble burst, internet technology and adoption did not step back, it kept accelerating, probably it was even helped in the long term by capital becoming more careful and not just throwing millions and millions at every e-commerce under the sun.
But... Maybe those people are more hoping for the bubble to burst not because it will save them, but entirely because they believe it will hurt the "tech bros" they see as responsible for their current predicament.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link