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PaperclipPerfector  8d ago (text post)   25511 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 23, 2026

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The preference for efficient soft targets, to the extent that one exists, is probably largely caused by the inaccuracy of Iran's weapons. If they had US/Israel-tier military technology, they would have preferred to use it to kill Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and other enemy elites rather than to waste it on blowing up random apartment buildings.

I'm skeptical. What's your evidence for this claim?

That they're not completely insane. They have very different values than I do, and they are in many ways irrational, but their track record of staying in power for decades shows that they are clearly rational enough to understand that there are much better ways to use limited and expensive missiles (even US missiles are not infinite in number) than to blow up random apartment buildings. They'd love to kill Netanyahu, so I'm sure they would try to target him unless they were worried that this would trigger nuclear retaliation (a reasonable concern). After Netanyahu there are all sorts of other targets in Israel that make more sense to attack than random apartment buildings.

It's not that I think they wouldn't deliberately kill Israeli and Saudi civilians. Sure they would. But they could easily think of more impressive and consequential targets.

It's not that I think they wouldn't deliberately kill Israeli and Saudi civilians. Sure they would. But they could easily think of more impressive and consequential targets.

Well maybe I misunderstood you. What's a "soft target" to you?

Anything that is relatively easy to hit, whether because it does not require accurate weapons or because it is not well defended.

For Iran, Netanyahu is a very hard target. Civilian apartment buildings in a minor town in the UAE is a relatively soft target.

Anything that is relatively easy to hit, whether because it does not require accurate weapons or because it is not well defended.

Would you say that an international airport, for example Ben Gurion airport is a soft target?

Same question about civilian passenger aircraft.

In theory, yes for any decent military. With Iran's limited military capabilities and its adversaries' elite military capabilities including in the field of air defense, probably not.

In theory, yes for any decent military. With Iran's limited military capabilities and its adversaries' elite military capabilities including in the field of air defense, probably not

Ok, just to be clear, in your view, civilian airports such as TLV and DXB are NOT soft targets for Iran, but residential apartment buildings in Tel Aviv or Dubai are soft targets for Iran. Do I understand correctly?

Residential apartment buildings are probably a bit softer than airports since it makes sense to concentrate air defense capacity on airports (easier to protect a few airports than to spread the same air defense with uniform density over all residential areas).

I don't think Iran really has any soft targets in Israel at all, it's too far away and has too good of an air defense. Some targets in the UAE are maybe what I'd call soft, but even those are pretty well defended.

Residential apartment buildings are probably a bit softer than airports since it makes sense to concentrate air defense capacity on airports (easier to protect a few airports than to spread the same air defense with uniform density over all residential areas).

I don't think Iran really has any soft targets in Israel at all, it's too far away and has too good of an air defense. Some targets in the UAE are maybe what I'd call soft, but even those are pretty well defended.

And yet Iran is still launching lots of missiles at Israel. So much for your theory.

More comments

Basic logic? Assuming geopolitical actors are largely rational?

Basic logic?

What's the logic?

Assuming geopolitical actors are largely rational?

How would it be irrational for Iran to target civilians if it had the option of (1) targeting both civilian and military targets; or (2) targeting military options only.

The logic is that if you're in a war, you'd like to win it.

Wars are won roughly 100% of the time by inflicting military and strategic damage to the enemy's ability to wage war.

Terror bombing is now rapidly approaching 100 years of "not fucking working" and to engage in it is retarded.

How would it be irrational for Iran to target civilians if it had the option of (1) targeting both civilian and military targets; or (2) targeting military options only.

Because you have a limited number of munitions and you don't increase your chances of winning a war by doing 1.

Terror bombing is now rapidly approaching 100 years of "not fucking working" and to engage in it is retarded.

Well, assuming that's true for the sake of argument, the fact is that there has been quite a lot of terror bombing in recent history. Which means that "[a]ssuming geopolitical actors are largely rational" is a bad assumption.

Well, assuming that's true for the sake of argument

I can go full autism on this if you like

Which means that "[a]ssuming geopolitical actors are largely rational" is a bad assumption.

It's extremely load bearing lol, and clearly a mixed bet. I was so, so loud in 2022 that Putin wouldn't invade because it would be a nightmare and absolutely not worth it.

I was right, it's a nightmare and not worth it. I was wrong, because he invaded anyway.

I can go full autism on this if you like

Please feel free to.

I was right, it's a nightmare and not worth it. I was wrong, because he invaded anyway.

I don't know enough about the situation to comment on this one way or another, however I will point out that the interests of Russia are not necessarily the same as the interests of Putin. When you say that "it's a nightmare and not worth it," are you talking about Russia or Putin? From Putin's perspective, it may very well be worth it to mire his country, alienate the world, and deplete his country's resources.

In fact, the same argument could be made about terrorism. From the perspective of a Hamas leader, sitting in some safe house in Qatar, it might very well be (or at least seem) worth it to launch terrorist attacks against Israel.

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