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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   26780 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 23, 2026

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Another view is that given the conditions, this isn't really the Iran war, it's the Lebanon war and the Iran war is a sideshow and a distraction. The casualties are higher in Lebanon, there are troops on the ground in Lebanon, Israel is considering expanding its territory into Lebanon, occupation will inevitably result in settlements which will not be removed, etc. Perhaps the purpose of the Iran war never had anything to do with Iran herself, which is why the goals against Iran never seemed achievable, but were instead more local to protecting the Israeli homefront against Hezbollah. The USA distracts Iran and forces it to accept Hezbollah's defeat.

This seems one of the worst covered parts of a war that is generally poorly covered. Lebanon is currently in constitutional crisis. The government ordered the disarming of Hezbollah and the lebanese army refused to carry out the order. As a result Israel is invading to stop the rockets. It's not complicated, and I'm surprised that Hezbollah wasn't weak enough + the lebanese tired of being dragged into war with Israel to put Hezbollah down but here we are.

Israel is attempting to create agreements with the Sunni/Christians against the Shia but it's unclear if that will work. My guess is they kill a bunch of civilians, nonsense like plans to take territory (any evidence of this?) crops up and lots of horrible images and Lebanon rallies around the flag plus international pressure causes Israel to leave with nothing gained. Their best and perhaps only chance was to convince the lebanese military to take out Hezbollah on their own, and they were either too weak or too cowardly to do it. Supposedly the French are still attempting to negotiate a deal like this but I give it poor odds. Polymarket odds of Hezbollah disarming peaked at 59% at the beginning of the war and are now down to 30%.

nonsense like plans to take territory (any evidence of this?)

The Israelis have announced plans for a buffer zone:

Israel on March 4 ordered all residents south of Lebanon's Litani River to leave the area, two days after Hezbollah joined the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran by firing rockets at Israel. The river runs east from the Mediterranean about 30 km (19 miles) north of the border with Israel. About 8% of Lebanese territory lies south of the river.

Israeli ground troops have set up new ‌fortifications south of the river and destroyed homes in emptied villages. Israel views the area as a stronghold for the Iran-backed Shi'ite militia, but the south has historically been a diverse region with Christian and Sunni villages as well. Marking an escalation of Israel's plans, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on March 24 that Israel had destroyed five bridges over the river and that the military would "control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani." He said troops would remain there as long as there is "terrorism and missiles". The military's spokesperson, Effie Defrin, said the same day that the military had defined the Litani River as the "northern security line" and that Israel was "deepening its ground operation with the aim of preventing direct fire at (Israel's) northern communities."

Making his first comments on the subject, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 25 that Israel was "expanding this security strip to keep the threat of anti-tank weapons ⁠away from our towns and our territory." "We are simply creating a larger buffer zone," he said.

The occupation, and inevitable settlement, is conjecture at this point.

East Jerusalem has much more religious significance than most of Southern Lebanon. Arguably even Syria has more. All Israel has ever wanted in Southern Lebanon is some kind of Maronite ethnostate, but the reality is that Lebanese Christian elites are low tfr, far too comfortable and all have foreign passports and so don’t care to fight and die for their homeland really. This was the reality in the civil war and is the problem today. The Shias are poor and have nowhere to go.

They've done the buffer zone thing at least twice before and never made a settlement. I don't think this time will be different -- no settlement but also no victory or much gained.

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