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Notes -
If you are making a prediction about a small moon on course to collide with the Earth, hopefully your predictions are going to be "the moon will collide on so-and-so day". If you predict that the moon will collide next week, and it doesn't, and you predict that it will collide the week after that, and it still doesn't, and you keep that up, people will be justified in ignoring you.
Orbital mechanics permit a degree of certainty that's rare in most other human affairs.
We can pick another metaphor. If you keep OD'ing on fent on Market Street and people keep narcaning you from the brink of oblivion and telling you that you're gonna die if you do this again, but you haven't died yet and you've done this tons of times should you ignore them?
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