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Transnational Thursday for April 2, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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If China wants to invade Taiwan (and I think that they would prefer not to, to be fair) the best time is probably while the US is stuck in the Middle East bombing stuff

That is provided Chinese already decided to take Taiwan by force as soon as possible, and are only waiting for the right moment. However, if they did not decide that, and are considering what would it cost them and whether it's worth it, then showing US Army is no longer Milley's army - which had more concerned with looking pleasant towards China than with being lethal - may very well tilt their decisions towards "maybe not right now". I mean, nobody really wants a hot war with China. That'd be a complete disaster - not for US military as such, but for the world economy. Maybe convincing China they'd lose more than they'd gain is a good alternative? Unlike Iranians - whose ideology is pretty much a religious death cult - China can be very pragmatic.

I think that the Chinese would prefer not to fight over Taiwan at all. They would prefer to inevitably assimilate it.

But to your point, I think we're getting into the "deterrence through strength" versus "deterrence through resolve." Perhaps it's just my bean-counter personality - I think that it's better to have the munitions and forego other entanglements to show China that we mean business (if we're going to go down that road.)

But perhaps I am too calculating, and the US throwing its weight around and possibly even getting in a bit further than intended is exactly what would make China reconsider.