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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 6, 2026

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Why would America let Iran toll the strait when we just destroyed the navy Iran would use to do it? It doesn’t even make any sense and somehow I’m the outrageous one for adding two and two to get four

Because the US lost. The Islamic Republic survived the worst we could do without invading, and closed the strait too. And the US isn't willing to invade to force the strait. So now the US has to give up something to get the strait back open. And Iran rebuilds everything including its navy and nuclear program in a few months, because without California-inspired regulation, that can actually be done very quickly.

Or, at least, that's how it will be if Iran gets its 10-point program.

The Islamic Republic survived the worst we could do without invading

We destroyed most of their army and the whole world freaked out when Trump threatened to do more than that. America has total escalation dominance.

Or, at least, that's how it will be if Iran gets its 10-point program.

That's not what was on the table apparently though.

Anyway, call me an optimist but I think this might be a great opportunity for everyone. My guess is that Trump is going to seize on the opportunity of negociation to go for the razzle-dazzle again, like he did with North Korea, to try and get Iran onside. Expect a tasteless video pitch about how Teheran could become the new Atlantic City. And without China breathing down their neck like for North Korea, I think it might actually work with Iran (well, not the details, but the bringing them onside). Iran pretty isolated by now, there isn't any Soviet Union anymore, Russia has revealed itself in the Ukraine war to not even be as dominating of a local power as was believed, let alone a world superpower. The middle east, except for Iran's proxy militias, are now on team western world order. Countries smaller and weaker than Iran can, as the Venezuela exepdition shows, likely be turned around on dime by the US if there's the will to do it, and China is pretty ambivalent about it all. Negociating with Trump will feel different to them than negociating with "the US" as it was for the last half century, and with their resistance in the war they have an opportunity to make a real deal that will preserve their dignity. The population largely would welcome it, so it's not like they'd be pissing off the people and risk a revolution. It'd probably be a win-win scenario here (though their proxies would be the big losers). So I don't know, I think there's actually a good chance for a transformative change.

Trump's North Korea negotiations were a failure that left the status quo in place. Iran looks to be turning out to worse than that -- status quo except Iran has new leadership and effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz. The only way around that seems to be for the US to actually invade, and it doesn't look like they will. As long as Iran thinks they've won, they'll give up nothing (including the Strait) and the only way to make them think otherwise is invasion.