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I saw a picture earlier purporting to show tons of sea traffic going around the Horn of Africa, supposedly rerouted from the Straight of Hormuz.
If we assume the SoH is going to be fully closed long-term, so that people adjust and buy into the next best marginal shipping pattern, what would the actual long-term consequences be? Are we talking more like a 15% increase in shipping costs or 200%?
I don't quite understand; why would traffic be rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz be going around the Horn of Africa? That's what you'd expect if they were trying to avoid pirates/Houthis in the Red Sea or if the Suez was closed. The Strait of Hormuz isn't a general global shipping lane, it's specifically for ships going to/from the countries with ports there. I'm questioning the premise of this.
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